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FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen: Eredivisie, Nov 8, 2026

Eredivisie
HomeFC Utrecht6112OVR
Kick-off 1:00 PM CT
AwayNEC Nijmegen6213OVR

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 1:00 PM CT · Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht, Netherlands

Team comparison

Ratings

6112OVRHome

FC Utrecht

ATT
6213
DEF
5110
FRM
7615
ELO
6012
  • 6213Attack5812
  • 5110Defence6814
  • 7615Form5812
  • 6012Elo strength6413
  • 6112Overall6213
ATTDEFFRMELO
FC Utrecht NEC
6213OVRAway

NEC Nijmegen

ATT
5812
DEF
6814
FRM
5812
ELO
6413

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Confirmed lineups

Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

FC Utrecht (12th, 12 pts from 11) host NEC (13th, 11 pts from 11) in the Eredivisie table as it stands. FC Utrecht have scored 19 and conceded 31 in 11 Eredivisie games (1.7 and 2.8 per game). NEC have scored 17 and conceded 19 in 11 Eredivisie games (1.5 and 1.7 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): FC Utrecht WWDWL, NEC DDWDL. In the last 5 meetings on record, FC Utrecht won 4, NEC won 1 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.5–2.3. NEC are clear favorites: FC Utrecht 25%, draw 20%, NEC 56%. The single most likely score is 1–2, but even that only has a 9% chance. Elo ratings (FC Utrecht 1503, NEC 1537) give FC Utrecht an expected score of 54%, which disagrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

FC Utrecht winDrawNEC win

Expected goals (model): FC Utrecht 1.55 · NEC 2.35 · most likely score 1–2 (9%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.81 / away 2.01 goals per game from 99 Eredivisie games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: FC Utrecht expected score 54%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

FC UtrechtNEC
12thTable position13th
12 (11)Points (played)11 (11)
3-3-5W-D-L2-5-4
1.73Goals for / game*1.55
2.82Goals against / game*1.73
WWDWLForm, last 5 (all comps)DDWDL
1503Elo rating (pre-match)1537
0.93 / 1.37Attack / defence index0.85 / 0.93

Table: current Eredivisie standings. *Eredivisie games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

FC Utrecht 4 wins · 0 draws · NEC 1 win

  • NEC Nijmegen 1–3 FC Utrecht
  • FC Utrecht 1–0 NEC Nijmegen
  • FC Utrecht 0–1 NEC Nijmegen
  • NEC Nijmegen 1–2 FC Utrecht
  • FC Utrecht 1–0 NEC Nijmegen