The Coefficient
EN – Language: English
← Match Center

Vitória de Guimaraes vs FC Porto: Primeira Liga, Nov 8, 2026

Primeira Liga
HomeVitória de Guimaraes6313OVR
Kick-off 12:00 PM CT
AwayFC Porto8718OVR

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães, Portugal

Team comparison

Ratings

6313OVRHome

Vitória de Guimaraes

ATT
5611
DEF
7415
FRM
6714
ELO
5511
  • 5611Attack8718
  • 7415Defence9920
  • 6714Form7114
  • 5511Elo strength8617
  • 6313Overall8718
ATTDEFFRMELO
Vitória FC Porto
8718OVRAway

FC Porto

ATT
8718
DEF
9920
FRM
7114
ELO
8617

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Confirmed lineups

Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Vitória (13th, 9 pts from 10) host FC Porto (1st, 30 pts from 10) in the Primeira Liga table as it stands. Vitória have scored 10 and conceded 10 in 10 Primeira Liga games (1.0 and 1.0 per game). FC Porto have scored 25 and conceded 4 in 10 Primeira Liga games (2.5 and 0.4 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Vitória DLWWD, FC Porto WLLWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Vitória won 0, FC Porto won 4 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 0.5–1.9. FC Porto are clear favorites: Vitória 9%, draw 20%, FC Porto 71%. The single most likely score is 0–1, but even that only has a 18% chance. Elo ratings (Vitória 1454, FC Porto 1733) give Vitória an expected score of 22%, which agrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

Vitória winDrawFC Porto win

Expected goals (model): Vitória 0.48 · FC Porto 1.86 · most likely score 0–1 (18%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.29 / away 1.39 goals per game from 90 Primeira Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Vitória expected score 22%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

Vitória FC Porto
13thTable position1st
9 (10)Points (played)30 (10)
2-3-5W-D-L10-0-0
1.00Goals for / game*2.50
1.00Goals against / game*0.40
DLWWDForm, last 5 (all comps)WLLWW
1454Elo rating (pre-match)1733
0.81 / 0.81Attack / defence index1.67 / 0.46

Table: current Primeira Liga standings. *Primeira Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Vitória 0 wins · 1 draw · FC Porto 4 wins

  • Vitória de Guimaraes 0–1 FC Porto
  • FC Porto 3–0 Vitória de Guimaraes
  • FC Porto 1–1 Vitória de Guimaraes
  • Vitória de Guimaraes 0–3 FC Porto
  • FC Porto 3–1 Vitória de Guimaraes