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TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04: Bundesliga, Nov 8, 2026

Bundesliga
HomeTSG Hoffenheim6513OVR
Kick-off 12:30 PM CT
AwaySchalke 045211OVR

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 12:30 PM CT · PreZero Arena, Sinsheim, Germany

Team comparison

Ratings

6513OVRHome

TSG Hoffenheim

ATT
6513
DEF
6112
FRM
7114
ELO
6313
  • 6513Attack337
  • 6112Defence7816
  • 7114Form357
  • 6313Elo strength5712
  • 6513Overall5211
ATTDEFFRMELO
Hoffenheim Schalke
5211OVRAway

Schalke 04

ATT
337
DEF
7816
FRM
357
ELO
5712

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Confirmed lineups

Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Hoffenheim (12th, 9 pts from 8) host Schalke (17th, 6 pts from 8) in the Bundesliga table as it stands. Hoffenheim have scored 14 and conceded 16 in 8 Bundesliga games (1.8 and 2.0 per game). Schalke have scored 4 and conceded 9 in 8 Bundesliga games (0.5 and 1.1 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Hoffenheim WWWLL, Schalke LLDLL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Hoffenheim won 4, Schalke won 1 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.6–0.7. Hoffenheim are clear favorites: Hoffenheim 58%, draw 25%, Schalke 17%. The single most likely score is 1–0, but even that only has a 16% chance. Elo ratings (Hoffenheim 1530, Schalke 1475) give Hoffenheim an expected score of 66%, which agrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

Hoffenheim winDrawSchalke win

Expected goals (model): Hoffenheim 1.57 · Schalke 0.73 · most likely score 1–0 (16%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.12 / away 1.38 goals per game from 72 Bundesliga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Hoffenheim expected score 66%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

HoffenheimSchalke
12thTable position17th
9 (8)Points (played)6 (8)
3-0-5W-D-L1-3-4
1.75Goals for / game*0.50
2.00Goals against / game*1.12
WWWLLForm, last 5 (all comps)LLDLL
1530Elo rating (pre-match)1475
1.00 / 1.10Attack / defence index0.48 / 0.74

Table: current Bundesliga standings. *Bundesliga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Hoffenheim 4 wins · 0 draws · Schalke 1 win

  • TSG Hoffenheim 2–0 Schalke 04
  • TSG Hoffenheim 5–1 Schalke 04
  • Schalke 04 0–3 TSG Hoffenheim
  • TSG Hoffenheim 4–2 Schalke 04
  • Schalke 04 4–0 TSG Hoffenheim