The Coefficient469OVRHome
Estoril
- ATT
- 377
- DEF
- 5311
- FRM
- 449
- ELO
- 4910
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Estoril vs Maritimo: Primeira Liga, Nov 8, 2026
Primeira LigaHomeEstoril469OVR
Kick-off 9:30 AM CT
AwayMaritimo5110OVR
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 9:30 AM CT · Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril, Portugal
Team comparison
Ratings
- 377Attack5211
- 5311Defence4910
- 449Form4810
- 4910Elo strength5411
- 469Overall5110
5110OVRAway
Maritimo
- ATT
- 5211
- DEF
- 4910
- FRM
- 4810
- ELO
- 5411
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Confirmed lineups
Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Estoril (18th, 2 pts from 10) host Maritimo (14th, 8 pts from 10) in the Primeira Liga table as it stands. Estoril have scored 5 and conceded 19 in 10 Primeira Liga games (0.5 and 1.9 per game). Maritimo have scored 9 and conceded 21 in 10 Primeira Liga games (0.9 and 2.1 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Estoril LLWLL, Maritimo DLWLL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Estoril won 2, Maritimo won 1 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.0–1.4. Maritimo are clear favorites: Estoril 26%, draw 27%, Maritimo 46%. The single most likely score is 0–1, but even that only has a 13% chance. Elo ratings (Estoril 1403, Maritimo 1445) give Estoril an expected score of 53%, which disagrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Estoril 0.96 · Maritimo 1.37 · most likely score 0–1 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.29 / away 1.39 goals per game from 90 Primeira Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Estoril expected score 53%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Estoril | Maritimo | |
|---|---|---|
| 18th | Table position | 14th |
| 2 (10) | Points (played) | 8 (10) |
| 0-2-8 | W-D-L | 2-2-6 |
| 0.50 | Goals for / game* | 0.90 |
| 1.90 | Goals against / game* | 2.10 |
| LLWLL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | DLWLL |
| 1403 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1445 |
| 0.52 / 1.32 | Attack / defence index | 0.75 / 1.44 |
Table: current Primeira Liga standings. *Primeira Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Estoril 2 wins · 2 draws · Maritimo 1 win
- Estoril 3–1 Maritimo
- Maritimo 1–0 Estoril
- Maritimo 0–0 Estoril
- Estoril 2–1 Maritimo
- Estoril 1–1 Maritimo