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FC Twente vs Ajax Amsterdam: Eredivisie, Nov 8, 2026

Eredivisie
HomeFC Twente8116OVR
Kick-off 7:30 AM CT
AwayAjax Amsterdam7916OVR

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT · De Grolsch Veste, Enschede, Netherlands

Team comparison

Ratings

8116OVRHome

FC Twente

ATT
7515
DEF
8818
FRM
8517
ELO
7716
  • 7515Attack7816
  • 8818Defence8016
  • 8517Form8517
  • 7716Elo strength7415
  • 8116Overall7916
ATTDEFFRMELO
FC Twente Ajax
7916OVRAway

Ajax Amsterdam

ATT
7816
DEF
8016
FRM
8517
ELO
7415

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Confirmed lineups

Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

FC Twente (4th, 23 pts from 11) host Ajax (2nd, 24 pts from 11) in the Eredivisie table as it stands. FC Twente have scored 28 and conceded 10 in 11 Eredivisie games (2.5 and 0.9 per game). Ajax have scored 30 and conceded 13 in 11 Eredivisie games (2.7 and 1.2 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): FC Twente WLWWW, Ajax LWWWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, FC Twente won 1, Ajax won 3 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.6–1.6. This looks evenly matched: FC Twente 39%, draw 24%, Ajax 38%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 11% chance. Elo ratings (FC Twente 1655, Ajax 1629) give FC Twente an expected score of 62%, which agrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

FC Twente winDrawAjax win

Expected goals (model): FC Twente 1.60 · Ajax 1.58 · most likely score 1–1 (11%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.81 / away 2.01 goals per game from 99 Eredivisie games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: FC Twente expected score 62%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

FC TwenteAjax
4thTable position2nd
23 (11)Points (played)24 (11)
7-2-2W-D-L7-3-1
2.55Goals for / game*2.73
0.91Goals against / game*1.18
WLWWWForm, last 5 (all comps)LWWWW
1655Elo rating (pre-match)1629
1.26 / 0.59Attack / defence index1.34 / 0.70

Table: current Eredivisie standings. *Eredivisie games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

FC Twente 1 win · 1 draw · Ajax 3 wins

  • Ajax Amsterdam 1–2 FC Twente
  • FC Twente 2–3 Ajax Amsterdam
  • Ajax Amsterdam 2–0 FC Twente
  • FC Twente 2–2 Ajax Amsterdam
  • Ajax Amsterdam 2–1 FC Twente