The Coefficient6714OVRHome
Lens
- ATT
- 7014
- DEF
- 6714
- FRM
- 5812
- ELO
- 7014
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Lens vs Marseille: Ligue 1, Nov 8, 2026
Ligue 1HomeLens6714OVR
Kick-off 1:45 PM CT
AwayMarseille7114OVR
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 1:45 PM CT · Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens, France
Team comparison
Ratings
- 7014Attack7816
- 6714Defence6714
- 5812Form7114
- 7014Elo strength6513
- 6714Overall7114
7114OVRAway
Marseille
- ATT
- 7816
- DEF
- 6714
- FRM
- 7114
- ELO
- 6513
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Confirmed lineups
Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Lens (9th, 13 pts from 9) host Marseille (6th, 15 pts from 9) in the Ligue 1 table as it stands. Lens have scored 16 and conceded 13 in 9 Ligue 1 games (1.8 and 1.4 per game). Marseille have scored 20 and conceded 13 in 9 Ligue 1 games (2.2 and 1.4 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Lens LWLWL, Marseille LWLWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Lens won 2, Marseille won 3 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.9–1.7. This looks evenly matched: Lens 41%, draw 22%, Marseille 37%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 9% chance. Elo ratings (Lens 1589, Marseille 1544) give Lens an expected score of 65%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Lens 1.85 · Marseille 1.73 · most likely score 1–1 (9%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.70 / away 1.33 goals per game from 81 Ligue 1 games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Lens expected score 65%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Lens | Marseille | |
|---|---|---|
| 9th | Table position | 6th |
| 13 (9) | Points (played) | 15 (9) |
| 4-1-4 | W-D-L | 5-0-4 |
| 1.78 | Goals for / game* | 2.22 |
| 1.44 | Goals against / game* | 1.44 |
| LWLWL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LWLWW |
| 1589 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1544 |
| 1.13 / 0.96 | Attack / defence index | 1.35 / 0.96 |
Table: current Ligue 1 standings. *Ligue 1 games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Lens 2 wins · 0 draws · Marseille 3 wins
- Marseille 3–1 Lens
- Lens 2–1 Marseille
- Marseille 0–1 Lens
- Lens 1–3 Marseille
- Marseille 2–1 Lens