The Coefficient6714OVRHome
Brest
- ATT
- 7014
- DEF
- 6914
- FRM
- 6714
- ELO
- 5812
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Brest vs Lyon: Ligue 1, Nov 8, 2026
Ligue 1HomeBrest6714OVR
Kick-off 10:15 AM CT
AwayLyon7415OVR
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 10:15 AM CT · Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest, France
Team comparison
Ratings
- 7014Attack6814
- 6914Defence8517
- 6714Form7114
- 5812Elo strength7215
- 6714Overall7415
7415OVRAway
Lyon
- ATT
- 6814
- DEF
- 8517
- FRM
- 7114
- ELO
- 7215
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Confirmed lineups
Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Brest (10th, 12 pts from 9) host Lyon (3rd, 17 pts from 9) in the Ligue 1 table as it stands. Brest have scored 16 and conceded 12 in 9 Ligue 1 games (1.8 and 1.3 per game). Lyon have scored 15 and conceded 7 in 9 Ligue 1 games (1.7 and 0.8 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Brest DWDLW, Lyon WWLLW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Brest won 1, Lyon won 3 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.2–1.3. This looks evenly matched: Brest 35%, draw 27%, Lyon 39%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 13% chance. Elo ratings (Brest 1481, Lyon 1612) give Brest an expected score of 40%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Brest 1.22 · Lyon 1.30 · most likely score 1–1 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.70 / away 1.33 goals per game from 81 Ligue 1 games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Brest expected score 40%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Brest | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|
| 10th | Table position | 3rd |
| 12 (9) | Points (played) | 17 (9) |
| 3-3-3 | W-D-L | 5-2-2 |
| 1.78 | Goals for / game* | 1.67 |
| 1.33 | Goals against / game* | 0.78 |
| DWDLW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWLLW |
| 1481 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1612 |
| 1.13 / 0.91 | Attack / defence index | 1.07 / 0.63 |
Table: current Ligue 1 standings. *Ligue 1 games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Brest 1 win · 1 draw · Lyon 3 wins
- Lyon 2–1 Brest
- Brest 0–0 Lyon
- Lyon 2–1 Brest
- Brest 2–1 Lyon
- Lyon 4–3 Brest