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Valencia vs Real Madrid: La Liga, Nov 7, 2026

La Liga
HomeValencia5311OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayReal Madrid8617OVR

Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Mestalla Stadium, Manises, Spain

Team comparison

Ratings

5311OVRHome

Valencia

ATT
428
DEF
6112
FRM
5311
ELO
5812
  • 428Attack8317
  • 6112Defence7816
  • 5311Form9920
  • 5812Elo strength9018
  • 5311Overall8617
ATTDEFFRMELO
Valencia Real Madrid
8617OVRAway

Real Madrid

ATT
8317
DEF
7816
FRM
9920
ELO
9018

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Valencia (19th, 6 pts from 10) host Real Madrid (3rd, 24 pts from 10) in the La Liga table as it stands. Valencia have scored 7 and conceded 17 in 10 La Liga games (0.7 and 1.7 per game). Real Madrid have scored 25 and conceded 10 in 10 La Liga games (2.5 and 1.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Valencia WLDDL, Real Madrid WWWWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Valencia won 1, Real Madrid won 3 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 0.7–2.1. Real Madrid are clear favorites: Valencia 12%, draw 19%, Real Madrid 70%. The single most likely score is 0–2, but even that only has a 13% chance. Elo ratings (Valencia 1480, Real Madrid 1771) give Valencia an expected score of 21%, which agrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

Valencia winDrawReal Madrid win

Expected goals (model): Valencia 0.75 · Real Madrid 2.14 · most likely score 0–2 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.72 / away 1.30 goals per game from 104 La Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Valencia expected score 21%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

ValenciaReal Madrid
19thTable position3rd
6 (10)Points (played)24 (10)
1-3-6W-D-L8-0-2
0.70Goals for / game*2.50
1.70Goals against / game*1.00
WLDDLForm, last 5 (all comps)WWWWW
1480Elo rating (pre-match)1771
0.59 / 1.10Attack / defence index1.50 / 0.74

Table: current La Liga standings. *La Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Valencia 1 win · 1 draw · Real Madrid 3 wins

  • Valencia 0–2 Real Madrid
  • Real Madrid 4–0 Valencia
  • Real Madrid 1–2 Valencia
  • Valencia 1–2 Real Madrid
  • Valencia 2–2 Real Madrid