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Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes: Ligue 1, Nov 7, 2026

Ligue 1
HomeParis Saint-Germain8517OVR
Kick-off 1:45 PM CT
AwayTroyes5311OVR

Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 1:45 PM CT · Parc des Princes, Paris, France

Team comparison

Ratings

8517OVRHome

Paris Saint-Germain

ATT
8016
DEF
7515
FRM
9920
ELO
9519
  • 8016Attack459
  • 7515Defence6012
  • 9920Form5311
  • 9519Elo strength5511
  • 8517Overall5311
ATTDEFFRMELO
PSG Troyes
5311OVRAway

Troyes

ATT
459
DEF
6012
FRM
5311
ELO
5511

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

PSG (1st, 20 pts from 9) host Troyes (15th, 8 pts from 9) in the Ligue 1 table as it stands. PSG have scored 21 and conceded 10 in 9 Ligue 1 games (2.3 and 1.1 per game). Troyes have scored 7 and conceded 16 in 9 Ligue 1 games (0.8 and 1.8 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): PSG WWWWW, Troyes DLLDW. In the last 5 meetings on record, PSG won 4, Troyes won 0 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 2.6–0.7. PSG are clear favorites: PSG 79%, draw 14%, Troyes 7%. The single most likely score is 2–0, but even that only has a 12% chance. Elo ratings (PSG 1815, Troyes 1459) give PSG an expected score of 92%, which agrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

PSG winDrawTroyes win

Expected goals (model): PSG 2.64 · Troyes 0.70 · most likely score 2–0 (12%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.66 / away 1.37 goals per game from 76 Ligue 1 games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: PSG expected score 92%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

PSGTroyes
1stTable position15th
20 (9)Points (played)8 (9)
6-2-1W-D-L2-2-5
2.33Goals for / game*0.78
1.11Goals against / game*1.78
WWWWWForm, last 5 (all comps)DLLDW
1815Elo rating (pre-match)1459
1.41 / 0.80Attack / defence index0.64 / 1.13

Table: current Ligue 1 standings. *Ligue 1 games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

PSG 4 wins · 1 draw · Troyes 0 wins

  • Troyes 1–3 Paris Saint-Germain
  • Paris Saint-Germain 4–3 Troyes
  • Paris Saint-Germain 2–2 Troyes
  • Troyes 1–2 Paris Saint-Germain
  • Troyes 0–2 Paris Saint-Germain