The Coefficient4810OVRHome
Parma
- ATT
- 367
- DEF
- 6413
- FRM
- 398
- ELO
- 5110
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Parma vs Bologna: Serie A, Nov 7, 2026
Serie AHomeParma4810OVR
Kick-off 11:00 AM CT
AwayBologna7014OVR
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 11:00 AM CT · Ennio Tardini, Parma, Italy
Team comparison
Ratings
- 367Attack6112
- 6413Defence7215
- 398Form8517
- 5110Elo strength6613
- 4810Overall7014
7014OVRAway
Bologna
- ATT
- 6112
- DEF
- 7215
- FRM
- 8517
- ELO
- 6613
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Parma (18th, 5 pts from 9) host Bologna (9th, 14 pts from 10) in the Serie A table as it stands. Parma have scored 5 and conceded 15 in 9 Serie A games (0.6 and 1.7 per game). Bologna have scored 14 and conceded 13 in 10 Serie A games (1.4 and 1.3 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Parma DLLLD, Bologna WLWWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Parma won 2, Bologna won 2 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 0.7–1.5. Bologna are clear favorites: Parma 18%, draw 27%, Bologna 55%. The single most likely score is 0–1, but even that only has a 17% chance. Elo ratings (Parma 1415, Bologna 1553) give Parma an expected score of 39%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Parma 0.71 · Bologna 1.46 · most likely score 0–1 (17%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.63 / away 1.57 goals per game from 93 Serie A games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Parma expected score 39%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Parma | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| 18th | Table position | 9th |
| 5 (9) | Points (played) | 14 (10) |
| 1-2-6 | W-D-L | 4-2-4 |
| 0.56 | Goals for / game* | 1.40 |
| 1.67 | Goals against / game* | 1.30 |
| DLLLD | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WLWWW |
| 1415 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1553 |
| 0.51 / 1.03 | Attack / defence index | 0.90 / 0.85 |
Table: current Serie A standings. *Serie A games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Parma 2 wins · 1 draw · Bologna 2 wins
- Bologna 0–1 Parma
- Bologna 2–1 Parma
- Parma 1–3 Bologna
- Parma 2–0 Bologna
- Bologna 0–0 Parma