The Coefficient5511OVRHome
Osasuna
- ATT
- 5211
- DEF
- 5511
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- 5411
← Match Center
Osasuna vs Athletic Club: La Liga, Nov 7, 2026
La LigaHomeOsasuna5511OVR
Kick-off 11:30 AM CT
AwayAthletic Club6714OVR
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 11:30 AM CT · El Sadar, Pamplona, Spain
Team comparison
Ratings
- 5211Attack6112
- 5511Defence7816
- 6213Form6714
- 5411Elo strength5912
- 5511Overall6714
6714OVRAway
Athletic Club
- ATT
- 6112
- DEF
- 7816
- FRM
- 6714
- ELO
- 5912
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Osasuna (14th, 11 pts from 10) host Athletic (7th, 12 pts from 9) in the La Liga table as it stands. Osasuna have scored 10 and conceded 20 in 10 La Liga games (1.0 and 2.0 per game). Athletic have scored 12 and conceded 9 in 9 La Liga games (1.3 and 1.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Osasuna DLWLW, Athletic DDLWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Osasuna won 1, Athletic won 2 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.0–1.5. Athletic are clear favorites: Osasuna 24%, draw 26%, Athletic 49%. The single most likely score is 0–1, but even that only has a 13% chance. Elo ratings (Osasuna 1443, Athletic 1489) give Osasuna an expected score of 52%, which disagrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Osasuna 0.95 · Athletic 1.48 · most likely score 0–1 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.72 / away 1.30 goals per game from 104 La Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Osasuna expected score 52%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Osasuna | Athletic | |
|---|---|---|
| 14th | Table position | 7th |
| 11 (10) | Points (played) | 12 (9) |
| 3-2-5 | W-D-L | 3-3-3 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game* | 1.33 |
| 2.00 | Goals against / game* | 1.00 |
| DLWLW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | DDLWW |
| 1443 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1489 |
| 0.74 / 1.25 | Attack / defence index | 0.91 / 0.75 |
Table: current La Liga standings. *La Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Osasuna 1 win · 2 draws · Athletic 2 wins
- Athletic Club 1–0 Osasuna
- Osasuna 1–1 Athletic Club
- Athletic Club 0–0 Osasuna
- Athletic Club 2–3 Osasuna
- Osasuna 1–2 Athletic Club