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Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: Premier League, Nov 7, 2026

Premier League
HomeNottingham Forest5311OVR
Kick-off 11:30 AM CT
AwayManchester City7816OVR

Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 11:30 AM CT · The City Ground, Nottingham, England

Team comparison

Ratings

5311OVRHome

Nottingham Forest

ATT
449
DEF
6613
FRM
357
ELO
6513
  • 449Attack8217
  • 6613Defence7215
  • 357Form7114
  • 6513Elo strength8617
  • 5311Overall7816
ATTDEFFRMELO
Nottm Forest Man City
7816OVRAway

Manchester City

ATT
8217
DEF
7215
FRM
7114
ELO
8617

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Nottm Forest (19th, 6 pts from 9) host Man City (1st, 21 pts from 9) in the Premier League table as it stands. Nottm Forest have scored 6 and conceded 12 in 9 Premier League games (0.7 and 1.3 per game). Man City have scored 20 and conceded 10 in 9 Premier League games (2.2 and 1.1 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Nottm Forest LLLDL, Man City WWLWL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Nottm Forest won 1, Man City won 3 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 0.8–1.7. Man City are clear favorites: Nottm Forest 17%, draw 23%, Man City 59%. The single most likely score is 0–1, but even that only has a 14% chance. Elo ratings (Nottm Forest 1542, Man City 1733) give Nottm Forest an expected score of 32%, which agrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

Nottm Forest winDrawMan City win

Expected goals (model): Nottm Forest 0.81 · Man City 1.73 · most likely score 0–1 (14%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.53 / away 1.20 goals per game from 88 Premier League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Nottm Forest expected score 32%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

Nottm ForestMan City
19thTable position1st
6 (9)Points (played)21 (9)
1-3-5W-D-L7-0-2
0.67Goals for / game*2.22
1.33Goals against / game*1.11
LLLDLForm, last 5 (all comps)WWLWL
1542Elo rating (pre-match)1733
0.62 / 0.98Attack / defence index1.47 / 0.86

Table: current Premier League standings. *Premier League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Nottm Forest 1 win · 1 draw · Man City 3 wins

  • Manchester City 2–2 Nottingham Forest
  • Nottingham Forest 1–2 Manchester City
  • Nottingham Forest 0–2 Manchester City
  • Nottingham Forest 1–0 Manchester City
  • Manchester City 3–0 Nottingham Forest