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Mainz vs Bayern Munich: Bundesliga, Nov 7, 2026

Bundesliga
HomeMainz6012OVR
Kick-off 8:30 AM CT
AwayBayern Munich8617OVR

Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 8:30 AM CT · MEWA ARENA, Mainz, Germany

Team comparison

Ratings

6012OVRHome

Mainz

ATT
7114
DEF
5912
FRM
449
ELO
6112
  • 7114Attack8718
  • 5912Defence8116
  • 449Form8116
  • 6112Elo strength9820
  • 6012Overall8617
ATTDEFFRMELO
Mainz Bayern
8617OVRAway

Bayern Munich

ATT
8718
DEF
8116
FRM
8116
ELO
9820

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Mainz (8th, 10 pts from 8) host Bayern (1st, 18 pts from 8) in the Bundesliga table as it stands. Mainz have scored 17 and conceded 17 in 8 Bundesliga games (2.1 and 2.1 per game). Bayern have scored 27 and conceded 8 in 8 Bundesliga games (3.4 and 1.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Mainz LWLLL, Bayern WDWWD. In the last 5 meetings on record, Mainz won 1, Bayern won 3 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.7–2.7. Bayern are clear favorites: Mainz 23%, draw 18%, Bayern 59%. The single most likely score is 1–2, but even that only has a 8% chance. Elo ratings (Mainz 1513, Bayern 1838) give Mainz an expected score of 18%, which agrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

Mainz winDrawBayern win

Expected goals (model): Mainz 1.68 · Bayern 2.67 · most likely score 1–2 (8%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.13 / away 1.39 goals per game from 70 Bundesliga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Mainz expected score 18%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

MainzBayern
8thTable position1st
10 (8)Points (played)18 (8)
3-1-4W-D-L5-3-0
2.12Goals for / game*3.38
2.12Goals against / game*1.00
LWLLLForm, last 5 (all comps)WDWWD
1513Elo rating (pre-match)1838
1.15 / 1.15Attack / defence index1.67 / 0.69

Table: current Bundesliga standings. *Bundesliga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Mainz 1 win · 1 draw · Bayern 3 wins

  • Mainz 3–4 Bayern Munich
  • Bayern Munich 2–2 Mainz
  • Bayern Munich 3–0 Mainz
  • Mainz 2–1 Bayern Munich
  • Mainz 0–4 Bayern Munich