The Coefficient6213OVRHome
Fulham
- ATT
- 5511
- DEF
- 6914
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- 6213
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Fulham vs Newcastle United: Premier League, Nov 7, 2026
Premier LeagueHomeFulham6213OVR
Kick-off 9:00 AM CT
AwayNewcastle United6213OVR
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 9:00 AM CT · Craven Cottage, London, England
Team comparison
Ratings
- 5511Attack6814
- 6914Defence5712
- 6213Form5812
- 6213Elo strength6714
- 6213Overall6213
6213OVRAway
Newcastle United
- ATT
- 6814
- DEF
- 5712
- FRM
- 5812
- ELO
- 6714
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Fulham (15th, 9 pts from 9) host Newcastle (12th, 11 pts from 8) in the Premier League table as it stands. Fulham have scored 9 and conceded 11 in 9 Premier League games (1.0 and 1.2 per game). Newcastle have scored 12 and conceded 14 in 8 Premier League games (1.5 and 1.8 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Fulham LWWLD, Newcastle WLLWL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Fulham won 3, Newcastle won 2 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.5–1.2. Fulham are slight favorites: Fulham 44%, draw 26%, Newcastle 30%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 12% chance. Elo ratings (Fulham 1519, Newcastle 1565) give Fulham an expected score of 52%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Fulham 1.47 · Newcastle 1.18 · most likely score 1–1 (12%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.53 / away 1.20 goals per game from 88 Premier League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Fulham expected score 52%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Fulham | Newcastle | |
|---|---|---|
| 15th | Table position | 12th |
| 9 (9) | Points (played) | 11 (8) |
| 2-3-4 | W-D-L | 3-2-3 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game* | 1.50 |
| 1.22 | Goals against / game* | 1.75 |
| LWWLD | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WLLWL |
| 1519 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1565 |
| 0.80 / 0.92 | Attack / defence index | 1.07 / 1.20 |
Table: current Premier League standings. *Premier League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Fulham 3 wins · 0 draws · Newcastle 2 wins
- Fulham 2–0 Newcastle United
- Newcastle United 2–1 Fulham
- Newcastle United 2–1 Fulham
- Newcastle United 1–2 Fulham
- Fulham 3–1 Newcastle United