The Coefficient5812OVRHome
Excelsior
- ATT
- 6012
- DEF
- 6513
- FRM
- 4810
- ELO
- 5511
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Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles: Eredivisie, Nov 7, 2026
EredivisieHomeExcelsior5812OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayGo Ahead Eagles6112OVR
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam, Netherlands
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6012Attack6914
- 6513Defence5611
- 4810Form6213
- 5511Elo strength5411
- 5812Overall6112
6112OVRAway
Go Ahead Eagles
- ATT
- 6914
- DEF
- 5611
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- 5411
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Excelsior (12th, 11 pts from 10) host Go Ahead Eagles (10th, 14 pts from 11) in the Eredivisie table as it stands. Excelsior have scored 16 and conceded 19 in 10 Eredivisie games (1.6 and 1.9 per game). Go Ahead Eagles have scored 23 and conceded 27 in 11 Eredivisie games (2.1 and 2.5 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Excelsior DLLLW, Go Ahead Eagles DLWWL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Excelsior won 1, Go Ahead Eagles won 3 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 2.0–2.1. This looks evenly matched: Excelsior 37%, draw 20%, Go Ahead Eagles 43%. The single most likely score is 1–2, but even that only has a 7% chance. Elo ratings (Excelsior 1457, Go Ahead Eagles 1448) give Excelsior an expected score of 60%, which disagrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Excelsior 1.99 · Go Ahead Eagles 2.14 · most likely score 1–2 (7%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.81 / away 1.95 goals per game from 95 Eredivisie games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Excelsior expected score 60%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Excelsior | Go Ahead Eagles | |
|---|---|---|
| 12th | Table position | 10th |
| 11 (10) | Points (played) | 14 (11) |
| 3-2-5 | W-D-L | 3-5-3 |
| 1.60 | Goals for / game* | 2.09 |
| 1.90 | Goals against / game* | 2.45 |
| DLLLW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | DLWWL |
| 1457 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1448 |
| 0.89 / 1.01 | Attack / defence index | 1.09 / 1.24 |
Table: current Eredivisie standings. *Eredivisie games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Excelsior 1 win · 1 draw · Go Ahead Eagles 3 wins
- Excelsior 0–1 Go Ahead Eagles
- Go Ahead Eagles 2–0 Excelsior
- Go Ahead Eagles 3–0 Excelsior
- Excelsior 1–1 Go Ahead Eagles
- Excelsior 2–1 Go Ahead Eagles