The Coefficient7816OVRHome
Borussia Dortmund
- ATT
- 6513
- DEF
- 8818
- FRM
- 8116
- ELO
- 8116
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Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg: Bundesliga, Nov 7, 2026
BundesligaHomeBorussia Dortmund7816OVR
Kick-off 8:30 AM CT
AwaySV Elversberg6313OVR
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 8:30 AM CT · Signal Iduna Park, Aue, Germany
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6513Attack6914
- 8818Defence6112
- 8116Form5812
- 8116Elo strength6213
- 7816Overall6313
6313OVRAway
SV Elversberg
- ATT
- 6914
- DEF
- 6112
- FRM
- 5812
- ELO
- 6213
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Dortmund (2nd, 18 pts from 8) host Elversberg (7th, 13 pts from 8) in the Bundesliga table as it stands. Dortmund have scored 14 and conceded 6 in 8 Bundesliga games (1.8 and 0.8 per game). Elversberg have scored 16 and conceded 16 in 8 Bundesliga games (2.0 and 2.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Dortmund DWWWD, Elversberg LWLLW. The goals model expects about 2.3–0.9. Dortmund are clear favorites: Dortmund 70%, draw 18%, Elversberg 13%. The single most likely score is 2–0, but even that only has a 11% chance. Elo ratings (Dortmund 1691, Elversberg 1520) give Dortmund an expected score of 79%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Dortmund 2.34 · Elversberg 0.89 · most likely score 2–0 (11%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.13 / away 1.39 goals per game from 70 Bundesliga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Dortmund expected score 79%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Dortmund | Elversberg | |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Table position | 7th |
| 18 (8) | Points (played) | 13 (8) |
| 5-3-0 | W-D-L | 4-1-3 |
| 1.75 | Goals for / game* | 2.00 |
| 0.75 | Goals against / game* | 2.00 |
| DWWWD | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LWLLW |
| 1691 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1520 |
| 1.00 / 0.58 | Attack / defence index | 1.10 / 1.10 |
Table: current Bundesliga standings. *Bundesliga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.