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AJ Auxerre vs Paris FC: Ligue 1, Nov 7, 2026

Ligue 1
HomeAJ Auxerre6213OVR
Kick-off 10:15 AM CT
AwayParis FC6714OVR

Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 10:15 AM CT · Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre, France

Team comparison

Ratings

6213OVRHome

AJ Auxerre

ATT
6513
DEF
5211
FRM
7615
ELO
5712
  • 6513Attack6714
  • 5211Defence7415
  • 7615Form5812
  • 5712Elo strength6613
  • 6213Overall6714
ATTDEFFRMELO
Auxerre Paris FC
6714OVRAway

Paris FC

ATT
6714
DEF
7415
FRM
5812
ELO
6613

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games Ă· 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) Ă· 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating Ă· 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Auxerre (12th, 10 pts from 8) host Paris FC (6th, 14 pts from 8) in the Ligue 1 table as it stands. Auxerre have scored 12 and conceded 18 in 8 Ligue 1 games (1.5 and 2.2 per game). Paris FC have scored 13 and conceded 9 in 8 Ligue 1 games (1.6 and 1.1 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Auxerre WWLWD, Paris FC WLLWL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Auxerre won 2, Paris FC won 1 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.3–2.0. Paris FC are clear favorites: Auxerre 26%, draw 22%, Paris FC 52%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 10% chance. Elo ratings (Auxerre 1470, Paris FC 1553) give Auxerre an expected score of 47%, which agrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

Auxerre winDrawParis FC win

Expected goals (model): Auxerre 1.34 · Paris FC 1.95 · most likely score 1–1 (10%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.66 / away 1.37 goals per game from 76 Ligue 1 games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Auxerre expected score 47%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

AuxerreParis FC
12thTable position6th
10 (8)Points (played)14 (8)
3-1-4W-D-L4-2-2
1.50Goals for / game*1.62
2.25Goals against / game*1.12
WWLWDForm, last 5 (all comps)WLLWL
1470Elo rating (pre-match)1553
0.99 / 1.35Attack / defence index1.05 / 0.81

Table: current Ligue 1 standings. *Ligue 1 games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Auxerre 2 wins · 2 draws · Paris FC 1 win

  • AJ Auxerre 0–0 Paris FC
  • Paris FC 1–1 AJ Auxerre
  • AJ Auxerre 2–0 Paris FC
  • Paris FC 0–2 AJ Auxerre
  • AJ Auxerre 1–2 Paris FC