The Coefficient8217OVRHome
Arsenal
- ATT
- 7114
- DEF
- 8718
- FRM
- 7615
- ELO
- 9519
← Match Center
Arsenal vs Hull City: Premier League, Nov 7, 2026
Premier LeagueHomeArsenal8217OVR
Kick-off 9:00 AM CT
AwayHull City6112OVR
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 9:00 AM CT · Emirates Stadium, London, England
Team comparison
Ratings
- 7114Attack6112
- 8718Defence7215
- 7615Form449
- 9519Elo strength6112
- 8217Overall6112
6112OVRAway
Hull City
- ATT
- 6112
- DEF
- 7215
- FRM
- 449
- ELO
- 6112
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Arsenal (2nd, 21 pts from 8) host Hull (10th, 11 pts from 9) in the Premier League table as it stands. Arsenal have scored 13 and conceded 5 in 8 Premier League games (1.6 and 0.6 per game). Hull have scored 11 and conceded 10 in 9 Premier League games (1.2 and 1.1 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Arsenal WWDWL, Hull LDLDD. In the last 5 meetings on record, Arsenal won 4, Hull won 0 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.5–0.7. Arsenal are clear favorites: Arsenal 57%, draw 26%, Hull 17%. The single most likely score is 1–0, but even that only has a 17% chance. Elo ratings (Arsenal 1812, Hull 1512) give Arsenal an expected score of 89%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Arsenal 1.50 · Hull 0.67 · most likely score 1–0 (17%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.53 / away 1.20 goals per game from 88 Premier League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Arsenal expected score 89%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Arsenal | Hull | |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Table position | 10th |
| 21 (8) | Points (played) | 11 (9) |
| 7-0-1 | W-D-L | 2-5-2 |
| 1.62 | Goals for / game* | 1.22 |
| 0.62 | Goals against / game* | 1.11 |
| WWDWL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LDLDD |
| 1812 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1512 |
| 1.14 / 0.60 | Attack / defence index | 0.92 / 0.86 |
Table: current Premier League standings. *Premier League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Arsenal 4 wins · 1 draw · Hull 0 wins
- Arsenal 2–0 Hull City
- Hull City 1–4 Arsenal
- Hull City 0–4 Arsenal
- Arsenal 0–0 Hull City
- Hull City 1–3 Arsenal