The Coefficient6513OVRHome
Alverca
- ATT
- 6714
- DEF
- 6313
- FRM
- 7114
- ELO
- 5812
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Alverca vs Casa Pia: Primeira Liga, Nov 7, 2026
Primeira LigaHomeAlverca6513OVR
Kick-off 12:00 PM CT
AwayCasa Pia5110OVR
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo, Portugal
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6714Attack367
- 6313Defence5411
- 7114Form7114
- 5812Elo strength479
- 6513Overall5110
5110OVRAway
Casa Pia
- ATT
- 367
- DEF
- 5411
- FRM
- 7114
- ELO
- 479
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Alverca (10th, 11 pts from 9) host Casa Pia (17th, 7 pts from 10) in the Primeira Liga table as it stands. Alverca have scored 13 and conceded 13 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.4 and 1.4 per game). Casa Pia have scored 5 and conceded 19 in 10 Primeira Liga games (0.5 and 1.9 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Alverca WWWLL, Casa Pia WLWWL. In the last 2 meetings on record, Alverca won 2, Casa Pia won 0 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.7–0.8. Alverca are clear favorites: Alverca 61%, draw 23%, Casa Pia 16%. The single most likely score is 1–0, but even that only has a 14% chance. Elo ratings (Alverca 1481, Casa Pia 1383) give Alverca an expected score of 71%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Alverca 1.74 · Casa Pia 0.77 · most likely score 1–0 (14%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.30 / away 1.45 goals per game from 84 Primeira Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Alverca expected score 71%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Alverca | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| 10th | Table position | 17th |
| 11 (9) | Points (played) | 7 (10) |
| 3-2-4 | W-D-L | 2-1-7 |
| 1.44 | Goals for / game* | 0.50 |
| 1.44 | Goals against / game* | 1.90 |
| WWWLL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WLWWL |
| 1481 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1383 |
| 1.04 / 1.04 | Attack / defence index | 0.51 / 1.29 |
Table: current Primeira Liga standings. *Primeira Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Alverca 2 wins · 0 draws · Casa Pia 0 wins
- Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia
- Casa Pia 0–2 Alverca