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Willem II vs PEC Zwolle: Eredivisie, Nov 6, 2026

Eredivisie
HomeWillem II428OVR
Kick-off 1:00 PM CT
AwayPEC Zwolle5110OVR

Friday, November 6, 2026 · 1:00 PM CT · Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg, Netherlands

Team comparison

Ratings

428OVRHome

Willem II

ATT
428
DEF
428
FRM
449
ELO
388
  • 428Attack4810
  • 428Defence5812
  • 449Form4810
  • 388Elo strength5010
  • 428Overall5110
ATTDEFFRMELO
Willem II PEC Zwolle
5110OVRAway

PEC Zwolle

ATT
4810
DEF
5812
FRM
4810
ELO
5010

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Willem II (18th, 2 pts from 11) host PEC Zwolle (15th, 8 pts from 10) in the Eredivisie table as it stands. Willem II have scored 10 and conceded 39 in 11 Eredivisie games (0.9 and 3.5 per game). PEC Zwolle have scored 11 and conceded 23 in 10 Eredivisie games (1.1 and 2.3 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Willem II LLLWL, PEC Zwolle LLWDL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Willem II won 1, PEC Zwolle won 3 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.3–2.3. PEC Zwolle are clear favorites: Willem II 21%, draw 20%, PEC Zwolle 60%. The single most likely score is 1–2, but even that only has a 10% chance. Elo ratings (Willem II 1300, PEC Zwolle 1414) give Willem II an expected score of 42%, which agrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

Willem II winDrawPEC Zwolle win

Expected goals (model): Willem II 1.26 · PEC Zwolle 2.25 · most likely score 1–2 (10%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.81 / away 1.95 goals per game from 95 Eredivisie games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Willem II expected score 42%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

Willem IIPEC Zwolle
18thTable position15th
2 (11)Points (played)8 (10)
0-2-9W-D-L2-2-6
0.91Goals for / game*1.10
3.55Goals against / game*2.30
LLLWLForm, last 5 (all comps)LLWDL
1300Elo rating (pre-match)1414
0.59 / 1.70Attack / defence index0.68 / 1.17

Table: current Eredivisie standings. *Eredivisie games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Willem II 1 win · 1 draw · PEC Zwolle 3 wins

  • Willem II 1–2 PEC Zwolle
  • PEC Zwolle 0–1 Willem II
  • Willem II 2–3 PEC Zwolle
  • PEC Zwolle 2–2 Willem II
  • PEC Zwolle 2–0 Willem II