The Coefficient6613OVRHome
Toulouse
- ATT
- 6513
- DEF
- 6814
- FRM
- 6714
- ELO
- 6213
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Toulouse vs Strasbourg: Ligue 1, Nov 6, 2026
Ligue 1HomeToulouse6613OVR
Kick-off 1:45 PM CT
AwayStrasbourg5511OVR
Friday, November 6, 2026 · 1:45 PM CT · Stadium Municipal de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6513Attack6513
- 6814Defence5211
- 6714Form357
- 6213Elo strength6513
- 6613Overall5511
5511OVRAway
Strasbourg
- ATT
- 6513
- DEF
- 5211
- FRM
- 357
- ELO
- 6513
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Toulouse (11th, 10 pts from 8) host Strasbourg (16th, 7 pts from 8) in the Ligue 1 table as it stands. Toulouse have scored 12 and conceded 11 in 8 Ligue 1 games (1.5 and 1.4 per game). Strasbourg have scored 12 and conceded 18 in 8 Ligue 1 games (1.5 and 2.2 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Toulouse WLDWD, Strasbourg DLLLL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Toulouse won 2, Strasbourg won 2 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 2.2–1.3. Toulouse are clear favorites: Toulouse 59%, draw 20%, Strasbourg 21%. The single most likely score is 2–1, but even that only has a 10% chance. Elo ratings (Toulouse 1515, Strasbourg 1544) give Toulouse an expected score of 54%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Toulouse 2.23 · Strasbourg 1.27 · most likely score 2–1 (10%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.66 / away 1.37 goals per game from 76 Ligue 1 games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Toulouse expected score 54%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Toulouse | Strasbourg | |
|---|---|---|
| 11th | Table position | 16th |
| 10 (8) | Points (played) | 7 (8) |
| 2-4-2 | W-D-L | 2-1-5 |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game* | 1.50 |
| 1.38 | Goals against / game* | 2.25 |
| WLDWD | Form, last 5 (all comps) | DLLLL |
| 1515 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1544 |
| 0.99 / 0.93 | Attack / defence index | 0.99 / 1.35 |
Table: current Ligue 1 standings. *Ligue 1 games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Toulouse 2 wins · 1 draw · Strasbourg 2 wins
- Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse
- Toulouse 1–0 Strasbourg
- Strasbourg 2–1 Toulouse
- Toulouse 1–2 Strasbourg
- Toulouse 0–0 Strasbourg