The Coefficient5611OVRHome
Hamburg SV
- ATT
- 469
- DEF
- 5712
- FRM
- 7114
- ELO
- 5611
← Match Center
Hamburg SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: Bundesliga, Nov 6, 2026
BundesligaHomeHamburg SV5611OVR
Kick-off 1:30 PM CT
AwayBorussia Mönchengladbach5511OVR
Friday, November 6, 2026 · 1:30 PM CT · Volksparkstadion, Hamburg Norderstedt, Germany
Team comparison
Ratings
- 469Attack5812
- 5712Defence5010
- 7114Form6213
- 5611Elo strength5211
- 5611Overall5511
5511OVRAway
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- ATT
- 5812
- DEF
- 5010
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- 5211
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Hamburg (13th, 9 pts from 7) host Gladbach (18th, 4 pts from 8) in the Bundesliga table as it stands. Hamburg have scored 6 and conceded 16 in 7 Bundesliga games (0.9 and 2.3 per game). Gladbach have scored 11 and conceded 22 in 8 Bundesliga games (1.4 and 2.8 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Hamburg WWWLL, Gladbach LLWWD. In the last 5 meetings on record, Hamburg won 2, Gladbach won 1 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.9–1.4. Hamburg are clear favorites: Hamburg 50%, draw 22%, Gladbach 28%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 10% chance. Elo ratings (Hamburg 1462, Gladbach 1429) give Hamburg an expected score of 63%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Hamburg 1.93 · Gladbach 1.41 · most likely score 1–1 (10%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.13 / away 1.39 goals per game from 70 Bundesliga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Hamburg expected score 63%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Hamburg | Gladbach | |
|---|---|---|
| 13th | Table position | 18th |
| 9 (7) | Points (played) | 4 (8) |
| 3-0-4 | W-D-L | 1-1-6 |
| 0.86 | Goals for / game* | 1.38 |
| 2.29 | Goals against / game* | 2.75 |
| WWWLL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LLWWD |
| 1462 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1429 |
| 0.64 / 1.21 | Attack / defence index | 0.84 / 1.41 |
Table: current Bundesliga standings. *Bundesliga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Hamburg 2 wins · 2 draws · Gladbach 1 win
- Hamburg SV 0–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 Hamburg SV
- Hamburg SV 2–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1 Hamburg SV
- Hamburg SV 2–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach