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FC Famalicao vs Arouca: Primeira Liga, Nov 6, 2026

Primeira Liga
HomeFC Famalicao6714OVR
Kick-off 2:45 PM CT
AwayArouca7215OVR

Friday, November 6, 2026 · 2:45 PM CT · Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão, Portugal

Team comparison

Ratings

6714OVRHome

FC Famalicao

ATT
6914
DEF
6914
FRM
6213
ELO
6613
  • 6914Attack6413
  • 6914Defence8217
  • 6213Form7615
  • 6613Elo strength6313
  • 6714Overall7215
ATTDEFFRMELO
FC Famalicao Arouca
7215OVRAway

Arouca

ATT
6413
DEF
8217
FRM
7615
ELO
6313

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

FC Famalicao (11th, 10 pts from 9) host Arouca (5th, 17 pts from 9) in the Primeira Liga table as it stands. FC Famalicao have scored 14 and conceded 11 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.6 and 1.2 per game). Arouca have scored 12 and conceded 7 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.3 and 0.8 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): FC Famalicao DWLLW, Arouca LDWWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, FC Famalicao won 2, Arouca won 1 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.0–1.3. Arouca are slight favorites: FC Famalicao 28%, draw 28%, Arouca 44%. The single most likely score is 0–1, but even that only has a 14% chance. Elo ratings (FC Famalicao 1553, Arouca 1527) give FC Famalicao an expected score of 62%, which disagrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

FC Famalicao winDrawArouca win

Expected goals (model): FC Famalicao 0.96 · Arouca 1.30 · most likely score 0–1 (14%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.30 / away 1.45 goals per game from 84 Primeira Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: FC Famalicao expected score 62%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

FC FamalicaoArouca
11thTable position5th
10 (9)Points (played)17 (9)
2-4-3W-D-L5-2-2
1.56Goals for / game*1.33
1.22Goals against / game*0.78
DWLLWForm, last 5 (all comps)LDWWW
1553Elo rating (pre-match)1527
1.10 / 0.92Attack / defence index0.98 / 0.67

Table: current Primeira Liga standings. *Primeira Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

FC Famalicao 2 wins · 2 draws · Arouca 1 win

  • FC Famalicao 1–0 Arouca
  • Arouca 1–1 FC Famalicao
  • Arouca 1–2 FC Famalicao
  • FC Famalicao 0–0 Arouca
  • Arouca 3–2 FC Famalicao