The Coefficient8116OVRHome
Trabzonspor
- ATT
- 8016
- DEF
- 7114
- FRM
- 9920
- ELO
- 8016
← Match Center
Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg: UEFA Conference League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Conference LeagueHomeTrabzonspor8116OVR
Kick-off 11:45 AM CT
AwaySC Freiburg6112OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 11:45 AM CT · Papara Park, Trabzon, Türkiye
Team comparison
Ratings
- 8016Attack6513
- 7114Defence5511
- 9920Form5812
- 8016Elo strength6914
- 8116Overall6112
6112OVRAway
SC Freiburg
- ATT
- 6513
- DEF
- 5511
- FRM
- 5812
- ELO
- 6914
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Trabzonspor (4th, 6 pts from 2) host Freiburg (18th, 3 pts from 2) in the Conference League table as it stands. Trabzonspor have scored 6 and conceded 2 in 2 Conference League games (3.0 and 1.0 per game). Freiburg have scored 3 and conceded 5 in 2 Conference League games (1.5 and 2.5 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Trabzonspor WWWWW, Freiburg LLLWW. The goals model expects about 2.9–1.2. Trabzonspor are clear favorites: Trabzonspor 73%, draw 14%, Freiburg 12%. The single most likely score is 2–1, but even that only has a 8% chance. Elo ratings (Trabzonspor 1678, Freiburg 1580) give Trabzonspor an expected score of 71%, which agrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 2 Conference League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Trabzonspor 2.94 · Freiburg 1.16 · most likely score 2–1 (8%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.64 / away 1.33 goals per game from 36 Conference League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Trabzonspor expected score 71%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Trabzonspor | Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 4th | Table position | 18th |
| 6 (2) | Points (played) | 3 (2) |
| 2-0-0 | W-D-L | 1-0-1 |
| 3.00 | Goals for / game* | 1.50 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game* | 2.50 |
| WWWWW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LLLWW |
| 1678 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1580 |
| 1.41 / 0.87 | Attack / defence index | 1.00 / 1.27 |
Table: current Conference League standings. *Conference League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.