The Coefficient5812OVRHome
Torreense
- ATT
- 6213
- DEF
- 5511
- FRM
- 5812
- ELO
- 5912
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Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia: UEFA Europa League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Europa LeagueHomeTorreense5812OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayArarat-Armenia5010OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Estádio Dr. Magalhaes Pessoa, Leiria, Portugal
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6213Attack5110
- 5511Defence428
- 5812Form5812
- 5912Elo strength5511
- 5812Overall5010
5010OVRAway
Ararat-Armenia
- ATT
- 5110
- DEF
- 428
- FRM
- 5812
- ELO
- 5511
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Torreense (28th, 3 pts from 3) host Ararat-Armenia (36th, 0 pts from 3) in the Europa League table as it stands. Torreense have scored 4 and conceded 7 in 3 Europa League games (1.3 and 2.3 per game). Ararat-Armenia have scored 2 and conceded 11 in 3 Europa League games (0.7 and 3.7 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Torreense WLWLL, Ararat-Armenia WLWLL. The goals model expects about 2.4–1.4. Torreense are clear favorites: Torreense 59%, draw 19%, Ararat-Armenia 22%. The single most likely score is 2–1, but even that only has a 9% chance. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Europa League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Torreense 2.37 · Ararat-Armenia 1.42 · most likely score 2–1 (9%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.50 / away 1.57 goals per game from 54 Europa League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Torreense expected score 63%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Torreense | Ararat-Armenia | |
|---|---|---|
| 28th | Table position | 36th |
| 3 (3) | Points (played) | 0 (3) |
| 1-0-2 | W-D-L | 0-0-3 |
| 1.33 | Goals for / game* | 0.67 |
| 2.33 | Goals against / game* | 3.67 |
| WLWLL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WLWLL |
| 1488 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1453 |
| 0.93 / 1.26 | Attack / defence index | 0.72 / 1.69 |
Table: current Europa League standings. *Europa League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.