The Coefficient6513OVRHome
Sunderland
- ATT
- 6213
- DEF
- 7916
- FRM
- 5311
- ELO
- 6012
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Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb: UEFA Europa League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Europa LeagueHomeSunderland6513OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayDinamo Zagreb6012OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Stadium of Light, Sunderland, England
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6213Attack5712
- 7916Defence6814
- 5311Form5311
- 6012Elo strength5712
- 6513Overall6012
6012OVRAway
Dinamo Zagreb
- ATT
- 5712
- DEF
- 6814
- FRM
- 5311
- ELO
- 5712
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Sunderland (9th, 7 pts from 3) host Dinamo Zagreb (18th, 4 pts from 3) in the Europa League table as it stands. Sunderland have scored 4 and conceded 2 in 3 Europa League games (1.3 and 0.7 per game). Dinamo Zagreb have scored 3 and conceded 4 in 3 Europa League games (1.0 and 1.3 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Sunderland LDDWL, Dinamo Zagreb DLDWL. The goals model expects about 1.3–0.9. Sunderland are slight favorites: Sunderland 45%, draw 28%, Dinamo Zagreb 27%. The single most likely score is 1–0, but even that only has a 14% chance. Elo ratings (Sunderland 1500, Dinamo Zagreb 1469) give Sunderland an expected score of 63%, which agrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Europa League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Sunderland 1.31 · Dinamo Zagreb 0.93 · most likely score 1–0 (14%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.50 / away 1.57 goals per game from 54 Europa League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Sunderland expected score 63%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Sunderland | Dinamo Zagreb | |
|---|---|---|
| 9th | Table position | 18th |
| 7 (3) | Points (played) | 4 (3) |
| 2-1-0 | W-D-L | 1-1-1 |
| 1.33 | Goals for / game* | 1.00 |
| 0.67 | Goals against / game* | 1.33 |
| LDDWL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | DLDWL |
| 1500 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1469 |
| 0.93 / 0.72 | Attack / defence index | 0.83 / 0.93 |
Table: current Europa League standings. *Europa League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.