The Coefficient6112OVRHome
SK Sturm Graz
- ATT
- 439
- DEF
- 7315
- FRM
- 7615
- ELO
- 5611
← Match Center
SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje: UEFA Europa League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Europa LeagueHomeSK Sturm Graz6112OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayNK Celje5110OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Merkur Arena, Graz, Austria
Team comparison
Ratings
- 439Attack5110
- 7315Defence5511
- 7615Form398
- 5611Elo strength5912
- 6112Overall5110
5110OVRAway
NK Celje
- ATT
- 5110
- DEF
- 5511
- FRM
- 398
- ELO
- 5912
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Sturm Graz (19th, 4 pts from 3) host NK Celje (29th, 1 pts from 3) in the Europa League table as it stands. Sturm Graz have scored 1 and conceded 3 in 3 Europa League games (0.3 and 1.0 per game). NK Celje have scored 2 and conceded 7 in 3 Europa League games (0.7 and 2.3 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Sturm Graz WLWWD, NK Celje DLLLD. The goals model expects about 1.1–0.9. Sturm Graz are slight favorites: Sturm Graz 41%, draw 30%, NK Celje 29%. The single most likely score is 1–0, but even that only has a 14% chance. Elo ratings (Sturm Graz 1461, NK Celje 1493) give Sturm Graz an expected score of 54%, which agrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Europa League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Sturm Graz 1.15 · NK Celje 0.93 · most likely score 1–0 (14%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.50 / away 1.57 goals per game from 54 Europa League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Sturm Graz expected score 54%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Sturm Graz | NK Celje | |
|---|---|---|
| 19th | Table position | 29th |
| 4 (3) | Points (played) | 1 (3) |
| 1-1-1 | W-D-L | 0-1-2 |
| 0.33 | Goals for / game* | 0.67 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game* | 2.33 |
| WLWWD | Form, last 5 (all comps) | DLLLD |
| 1461 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1493 |
| 0.61 / 0.83 | Attack / defence index | 0.72 / 1.26 |
Table: current Europa League standings. *Europa League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.