The Coefficient6613OVRHome
Sparta Prague
- ATT
- 6714
- DEF
- 7315
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- 6012
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Sparta Prague vs AFC Bournemouth: UEFA Europa League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Europa LeagueHomeSparta Prague6613OVR
Kick-off 11:45 AM CT
AwayAFC Bournemouth8517OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 11:45 AM CT · Generali Arena, Prague, Czechia
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6714Attack7916
- 7315Defence8718
- 6213Form9920
- 6012Elo strength7515
- 6613Overall8517
8517OVRAway
AFC Bournemouth
- ATT
- 7916
- DEF
- 8718
- FRM
- 9920
- ELO
- 7515
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Sparta (16th, 4 pts from 3) host Bournemouth (3rd, 9 pts from 3) in the Europa League table as it stands. Sparta have scored 5 and conceded 3 in 3 Europa League games (1.7 and 1.0 per game). Bournemouth have scored 8 and conceded 1 in 3 Europa League games (2.7 and 0.3 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Sparta LWWDL, Bournemouth WWWWW. The goals model expects about 1.0–1.8. Bournemouth are clear favorites: Sparta 20%, draw 23%, Bournemouth 57%. The single most likely score is 0–1, but even that only has a 12% chance. Elo ratings (Sparta 1504, Bournemouth 1633) give Sparta an expected score of 40%, which agrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Europa League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Sparta 0.95 · Bournemouth 1.78 · most likely score 0–1 (12%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.50 / away 1.57 goals per game from 54 Europa League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Sparta expected score 40%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Sparta | Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| 16th | Table position | 3rd |
| 4 (3) | Points (played) | 9 (3) |
| 1-1-1 | W-D-L | 3-0-0 |
| 1.67 | Goals for / game* | 2.67 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game* | 0.33 |
| LWWDL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWWWW |
| 1504 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1633 |
| 1.04 / 0.83 | Attack / defence index | 1.37 / 0.61 |
Table: current Europa League standings. *Europa League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.