The Coefficient6613OVRHome
Riga FC
- ATT
- 5912
- DEF
- 7114
- FRM
- 7114
- ELO
- ––
← Match Center
Riga FC vs Jablonec: UEFA Conference League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Conference LeagueHomeRiga FC6613OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayJablonec6213OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Skonto Stadions, Riga, Latvia
Team comparison
Ratings
- 5912Attack5912
- 7114Defence6513
- 7114Form6213
- 6613Overall6213
6213OVRAway
Jablonec
- ATT
- 5912
- DEF
- 6513
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- ––
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Riga FC (21st, 2 pts from 2) host Jablonec (24th, 1 pts from 2) in the Conference League table as it stands. Riga FC have scored 2 and conceded 2 in 2 Conference League games (1.0 and 1.0 per game). Jablonec have scored 2 and conceded 3 in 2 Conference League games (1.0 and 1.5 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Riga FC DWWDD, Jablonec WLWLD. The goals model expects about 1.4–1.0. Riga FC are clear favorites: Riga FC 47%, draw 27%, Jablonec 27%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 13% chance. Small sample warning: one side has only 2 Conference League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Riga FC 1.43 · Jablonec 1.01 · most likely score 1–1 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.64 / away 1.33 goals per game from 36 Conference League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Riga FC expected score 59%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Riga FC | Jablonec | |
|---|---|---|
| 21st | Table position | 24th |
| 2 (2) | Points (played) | 1 (2) |
| 0-2-0 | W-D-L | 0-1-1 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game* | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game* | 1.50 |
| DWWDD | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WLWLD |
| 1498 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1497 |
| 0.87 / 0.87 | Attack / defence index | 0.87 / 1.00 |
Table: current Conference League standings. *Conference League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.