The Coefficient5211OVRHome
Lincoln Red Imps
- ATT
- 5912
- DEF
- 5010
- FRM
- 449
- ELO
- 5411
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Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split: UEFA Conference League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Conference LeagueHomeLincoln Red Imps5211OVR
Kick-off 11:45 AM CT
AwayHajduk Split7615OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 11:45 AM CT · Europa Point Stadium, Gibraltar, Gibraltar
Team comparison
Ratings
- 5912Attack6513
- 5010Defence7816
- 449Form9018
- 5411Elo strength––
- 5211Overall7615
7615OVRAway
Hajduk Split
- ATT
- 6513
- DEF
- 7816
- FRM
- 9018
- ELO
- ––
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Red Imps (33rd, 0 pts from 2) host Hajduk Split (8th, 6 pts from 2) in the Conference League table as it stands. Red Imps have scored 2 and conceded 6 in 2 Conference League games (1.0 and 3.0 per game). Hajduk Split have scored 3 and conceded 1 in 2 Conference League games (1.5 and 0.5 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Red Imps LLWLL, Hajduk Split WDWWW. The goals model expects about 1.0–1.9. Hajduk Split are clear favorites: Red Imps 21%, draw 22%, Hajduk Split 57%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 11% chance. Small sample warning: one side has only 2 Conference League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Red Imps 1.05 · Hajduk Split 1.88 · most likely score 1–1 (11%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.64 / away 1.33 goals per game from 36 Conference League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Red Imps expected score 48%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Red Imps | Hajduk Split | |
|---|---|---|
| 33rd | Table position | 8th |
| 0 (2) | Points (played) | 6 (2) |
| 0-0-2 | W-D-L | 2-0-0 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game* | 1.50 |
| 3.00 | Goals against / game* | 0.50 |
| LLWLL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WDWWW |
| 1450 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1522 |
| 0.87 / 1.41 | Attack / defence index | 1.00 / 0.73 |
Table: current Conference League standings. *Conference League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.