The Coefficient7716OVRHome
Real Sociedad
- ATT
- 7916
- DEF
- 7315
- FRM
- 9018
- ELO
- 6513
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Real Sociedad vs Lyon: UEFA Europa League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Europa LeagueHomeReal Sociedad7716OVR
Kick-off 11:45 AM CT
AwayLyon6413OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 11:45 AM CT · Reale Arena, San Sebastian, Spain
Team comparison
Ratings
- 7916Attack6714
- 7315Defence5912
- 9018Form5812
- 6513Elo strength7215
- 7716Overall6413
6413OVRAway
Lyon
- ATT
- 6714
- DEF
- 5912
- FRM
- 5812
- ELO
- 7215
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Real Sociedad (14th, 4 pts from 3) host Lyon (12th, 6 pts from 3) in the Europa League table as it stands. Real Sociedad have scored 8 and conceded 3 in 3 Europa League games (2.7 and 1.0 per game). Lyon have scored 5 and conceded 6 in 3 Europa League games (1.7 and 2.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Real Sociedad WDWWW, Lyon LWWLL. In the last 4 meetings on record, Real Sociedad won 2, Lyon won 2 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 2.4–1.4. Real Sociedad are clear favorites: Real Sociedad 60%, draw 19%, Lyon 21%. The single most likely score is 2–1, but even that only has a 9% chance. Elo ratings (Real Sociedad 1541, Lyon 1606) give Real Sociedad an expected score of 49%, which disagrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Europa League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Real Sociedad 2.36 · Lyon 1.35 · most likely score 2–1 (9%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.50 / away 1.57 goals per game from 54 Europa League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Real Sociedad expected score 49%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Real Sociedad | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|
| 14th | Table position | 12th |
| 4 (3) | Points (played) | 6 (3) |
| 1-1-1 | W-D-L | 2-0-1 |
| 2.67 | Goals for / game* | 1.67 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game* | 2.00 |
| WDWWW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LWWLL |
| 1541 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1606 |
| 1.37 / 0.83 | Attack / defence index | 1.04 / 1.15 |
Table: current Europa League standings. *Europa League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Real Sociedad 2 wins · 0 draws · Lyon 2 wins
- Real Sociedad 2–0 Lyon
- Lyon 0–2 Real Sociedad
- Lyon 1–0 Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Lyon