The Coefficient7615OVRHome
Panathinaikos
- ATT
- 8417
- DEF
- 7114
- FRM
- 8517
- ELO
- 6513
← Match Center
Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia: UEFA Conference League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Conference LeagueHomePanathinaikos7615OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayCSKA Sofia5511OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Athens Olympic Stadium, Athens, Greece
Team comparison
Ratings
- 8417Attack6513
- 7114Defence5912
- 8517Form357
- 6513Elo strength––
- 7615Overall5511
5511OVRAway
CSKA Sofia
- ATT
- 6513
- DEF
- 5912
- FRM
- 357
- ELO
- ––
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Panathinaikos (1st, 6 pts from 2) host CSKA Sofia (23rd, 1 pts from 2) in the Conference League table as it stands. Panathinaikos have scored 7 and conceded 2 in 2 Conference League games (3.5 and 1.0 per game). CSKA Sofia have scored 3 and conceded 4 in 2 Conference League games (1.5 and 2.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Panathinaikos LWWWW, CSKA Sofia LLLLD. The goals model expects about 2.9–1.2. Panathinaikos are clear favorites: Panathinaikos 73%, draw 15%, CSKA Sofia 13%. The single most likely score is 2–1, but even that only has a 8% chance. Small sample warning: one side has only 2 Conference League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Panathinaikos 2.88 · CSKA Sofia 1.16 · most likely score 2–1 (8%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.64 / away 1.33 goals per game from 36 Conference League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Panathinaikos expected score 65%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Panathinaikos | CSKA Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Table position | 23rd |
| 6 (2) | Points (played) | 1 (2) |
| 2-0-0 | W-D-L | 0-1-1 |
| 3.50 | Goals for / game* | 1.50 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game* | 2.00 |
| LWWWW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LLLLD |
| 1542 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1493 |
| 1.54 / 0.87 | Attack / defence index | 1.00 / 1.14 |
Table: current Conference League standings. *Conference League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.