The Coefficient6012OVRHome
NEC Nijmegen
- ATT
- 6714
- DEF
- 5110
- FRM
- 5812
- ELO
- 6413
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NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia: UEFA Europa League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Europa LeagueHomeNEC Nijmegen6012OVR
Kick-off 11:45 AM CT
AwayOmonia Nicosia6714OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 11:45 AM CT · Goffertstadion, Nijmegen, Netherlands
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6714Attack6714
- 5110Defence6814
- 5812Form7114
- 6413Elo strength6012
- 6012Overall6714
6714OVRAway
Omonia Nicosia
- ATT
- 6714
- DEF
- 6814
- FRM
- 7114
- ELO
- 6012
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
NEC (20th, 4 pts from 3) host Omonia (11th, 6 pts from 3) in the Europa League table as it stands. NEC have scored 5 and conceded 8 in 3 Europa League games (1.7 and 2.7 per game). Omonia have scored 5 and conceded 4 in 3 Europa League games (1.7 and 1.3 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): NEC DDWDL, Omonia LWWWL. The goals model expects about 1.5–2.2. Omonia are clear favorites: NEC 25%, draw 20%, Omonia 55%. The single most likely score is 1–2, but even that only has a 9% chance. Elo ratings (NEC 1537, Omonia 1497) give NEC an expected score of 64%, which disagrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Europa League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): NEC 1.46 · Omonia 2.24 · most likely score 1–2 (9%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.50 / away 1.57 goals per game from 54 Europa League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: NEC expected score 64%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| NEC | Omonia | |
|---|---|---|
| 20th | Table position | 11th |
| 4 (3) | Points (played) | 6 (3) |
| 1-1-1 | W-D-L | 2-0-1 |
| 1.67 | Goals for / game* | 1.67 |
| 2.67 | Goals against / game* | 1.33 |
| DDWDL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LWWWL |
| 1537 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1497 |
| 1.04 / 1.37 | Attack / defence index | 1.04 / 0.93 |
Table: current Europa League standings. *Europa League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.