The Coefficient6613OVRHome
AC Milan
- ATT
- 6213
- DEF
- 6313
- FRM
- 7114
- ELO
- 7215
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AC Milan vs Ferencvaros: UEFA Europa League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Europa LeagueHomeAC Milan6613OVR
Kick-off 11:45 AM CT
AwayFerencvaros8016OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 11:45 AM CT · San Siro, Milano, Italy
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6213Attack8217
- 6313Defence7315
- 7114Form9920
- 7215Elo strength6714
- 6613Overall8016
8016OVRAway
Ferencvaros
- ATT
- 8217
- DEF
- 7315
- FRM
- 9920
- ELO
- 6714
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Milan (24th, 3 pts from 3) host Ferencvaros (4th, 9 pts from 3) in the Europa League table as it stands. Milan have scored 4 and conceded 5 in 3 Europa League games (1.3 and 1.7 per game). Ferencvaros have scored 9 and conceded 3 in 3 Europa League games (3.0 and 1.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Milan WLWLW, Ferencvaros WWWWW. The goals model expects about 1.2–2.4. Ferencvaros are clear favorites: Milan 17%, draw 18%, Ferencvaros 65%. The single most likely score is 1–2, but even that only has a 9% chance. Elo ratings (Milan 1612, Ferencvaros 1561) give Milan an expected score of 65%, which disagrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Europa League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Milan 1.16 · Ferencvaros 2.42 · most likely score 1–2 (9%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.50 / away 1.57 goals per game from 54 Europa League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Milan expected score 65%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Milan | Ferencvaros | |
|---|---|---|
| 24th | Table position | 4th |
| 3 (3) | Points (played) | 9 (3) |
| 1-0-2 | W-D-L | 3-0-0 |
| 1.33 | Goals for / game* | 3.00 |
| 1.67 | Goals against / game* | 1.00 |
| WLWLW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWWWW |
| 1612 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1561 |
| 0.93 / 1.04 | Attack / defence index | 1.48 / 0.83 |
Table: current Europa League standings. *Europa League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.