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FC Midtjylland vs Ajax Amsterdam: UEFA Conference League, Nov 5, 2026

UEFA Conference League
HomeFC Midtjylland6513OVR
Kick-off 11:45 AM CT
AwayAjax Amsterdam7315OVR

Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 11:45 AM CT · MCH Arena, Herning, Denmark

Team comparison

Ratings

6513OVRHome

FC Midtjylland

ATT
5211
DEF
7114
FRM
7615
ELO
6413
  • 5211Attack6513
  • 7114Defence7114
  • 7615Form8517
  • 6413Elo strength7415
  • 6513Overall7315
ATTDEFFRMELO
Midtjylland Ajax
7315OVRAway

Ajax Amsterdam

ATT
6513
DEF
7114
FRM
8517
ELO
7415

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Midtjylland (25th, 1 pts from 2) host Ajax (13th, 3 pts from 2) in the Conference League table as it stands. Midtjylland have scored 1 and conceded 2 in 2 Conference League games (0.5 and 1.0 per game). Ajax have scored 3 and conceded 2 in 2 Conference League games (1.5 and 1.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Midtjylland WDWLW, Ajax LWWWW. In the last 2 meetings on record, Midtjylland won 0, Ajax won 2 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.0–1.2. This looks evenly matched: Midtjylland 33%, draw 29%, Ajax 38%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 13% chance. Elo ratings (Midtjylland 1540, Ajax 1629) give Midtjylland an expected score of 46%, which agrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 2 Conference League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.

Data outlook

Midtjylland winDrawAjax win

Expected goals (model): Midtjylland 1.05 · Ajax 1.16 · most likely score 1–1 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.64 / away 1.33 goals per game from 36 Conference League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Midtjylland expected score 46%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

MidtjyllandAjax
25thTable position13th
1 (2)Points (played)3 (2)
0-1-1W-D-L1-0-1
0.50Goals for / game*1.50
1.00Goals against / game*1.00
WDWLWForm, last 5 (all comps)LWWWW
1540Elo rating (pre-match)1629
0.73 / 0.87Attack / defence index1.00 / 0.87

Table: current Conference League standings. *Conference League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Midtjylland 0 wins · 0 draws · Ajax 2 wins

  • Ajax Amsterdam 3–1 FC Midtjylland
  • FC Midtjylland 1–2 Ajax Amsterdam