The Coefficient5411OVRHome
Lillestrom
- ATT
- 5110
- DEF
- 4810
- FRM
- 6714
- ELO
- 5611
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Lillestrom vs Viktoria Plzen: UEFA Europa League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Europa LeagueHomeLillestrom5411OVR
Kick-off 11:45 AM CT
AwayViktoria Plzen5311OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 11:45 AM CT · Arasen Stadion, Lillestrøm, Norway
Team comparison
Ratings
- 5110Attack5110
- 4810Defence5511
- 6714Form449
- 5611Elo strength6012
- 5411Overall5311
5311OVRAway
Viktoria Plzen
- ATT
- 5110
- DEF
- 5511
- FRM
- 449
- ELO
- 6012
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Lillestrom (31st, 1 pts from 3) host Viktoria Plzen (33rd, 0 pts from 3) in the Europa League table as it stands. Lillestrom have scored 2 and conceded 9 in 3 Europa League games (0.7 and 3.0 per game). Viktoria Plzen have scored 2 and conceded 7 in 3 Europa League games (0.7 and 2.3 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Lillestrom DDWLW, Viktoria Plzen LWLLL. The goals model expects about 1.4–1.7. Viktoria Plzen are slight favorites: Lillestrom 31%, draw 24%, Viktoria Plzen 45%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 11% chance. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Europa League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Lillestrom 1.35 · Viktoria Plzen 1.67 · most likely score 1–1 (11%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.50 / away 1.57 goals per game from 54 Europa League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Lillestrom expected score 54%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Lillestrom | Viktoria Plzen | |
|---|---|---|
| 31st | Table position | 33rd |
| 1 (3) | Points (played) | 0 (3) |
| 0-1-2 | W-D-L | 0-0-3 |
| 0.67 | Goals for / game* | 0.67 |
| 3.00 | Goals against / game* | 2.33 |
| DDWLW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LWLLL |
| 1467 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1499 |
| 0.72 / 1.48 | Attack / defence index | 0.72 / 1.26 |
Table: current Europa League standings. *Europa League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.