The Coefficient6213OVRHome
Levski Sofia
- ATT
- 5712
- DEF
- 7315
- FRM
- 5311
- ELO
- 6012
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Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok: UEFA Europa League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Europa LeagueHomeLevski Sofia6213OVR
Kick-off 11:45 AM CT
AwayJagiellonia Bialystok6012OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 11:45 AM CT · Vasil Levski National Stadium, Sofia, Bulgaria
Team comparison
Ratings
- 5712Attack6213
- 7315Defence5912
- 5311Form5812
- 6012Elo strength6012
- 6213Overall6012
6012OVRAway
Jagiellonia Bialystok
- ATT
- 6213
- DEF
- 5912
- FRM
- 5812
- ELO
- 6012
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Levski Sofia (17th, 4 pts from 3) host Jagiellonia (27th, 3 pts from 3) in the Europa League table as it stands. Levski Sofia have scored 3 and conceded 3 in 3 Europa League games (1.0 and 1.0 per game). Jagiellonia have scored 4 and conceded 6 in 3 Europa League games (1.3 and 2.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Levski Sofia DLLDW, Jagiellonia LWLWL. The goals model expects about 1.4–1.2. Levski Sofia are slight favorites: Levski Sofia 42%, draw 26%, Jagiellonia 32%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 12% chance. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Europa League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Levski Sofia 1.42 · Jagiellonia 1.21 · most likely score 1–1 (12%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.50 / away 1.57 goals per game from 54 Europa League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Levski Sofia expected score 59%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Levski Sofia | Jagiellonia | |
|---|---|---|
| 17th | Table position | 27th |
| 4 (3) | Points (played) | 3 (3) |
| 1-1-1 | W-D-L | 1-0-2 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game* | 1.33 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game* | 2.00 |
| DLLDW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LWLWL |
| 1502 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1501 |
| 0.83 / 0.83 | Attack / defence index | 0.93 / 1.15 |
Table: current Europa League standings. *Europa League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.