The Coefficient8116OVRHome
Bayer Leverkusen
- ATT
- 7916
- DEF
- 9519
- FRM
- 7114
- ELO
- 7415
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Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: UEFA Europa League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Europa LeagueHomeBayer Leverkusen8116OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayMarseille5812OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · BayArena, Leverkusen, Germany
Team comparison
Ratings
- 7916Attack439
- 9519Defence5912
- 7114Form7114
- 7415Elo strength6413
- 8116Overall5812
5812OVRAway
Marseille
- ATT
- 439
- DEF
- 5912
- FRM
- 7114
- ELO
- 6413
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Leverkusen (2nd, 9 pts from 3) host Marseille (34th, 0 pts from 3) in the Europa League table as it stands. Leverkusen have scored 8 and conceded 0 in 3 Europa League games (2.7 and 0.0 per game). Marseille have scored 1 and conceded 6 in 3 Europa League games (0.3 and 2.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Leverkusen WWLWL, Marseille WLWLW. In the last meeting on record, Leverkusen won 1, Marseille won 0 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 2.4–0.5. Leverkusen are clear favorites: Leverkusen 80%, draw 15%, Marseille 6%. The single most likely score is 2–0, but even that only has a 16% chance. Elo ratings (Leverkusen 1626, Marseille 1532) give Leverkusen an expected score of 71%, which agrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Europa League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Leverkusen 2.36 · Marseille 0.48 · most likely score 2–0 (16%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.50 / away 1.57 goals per game from 54 Europa League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Leverkusen expected score 71%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Leverkusen | Marseille | |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Table position | 34th |
| 9 (3) | Points (played) | 0 (3) |
| 3-0-0 | W-D-L | 0-0-3 |
| 2.67 | Goals for / game* | 0.33 |
| 0.00 | Goals against / game* | 2.00 |
| WWLWL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WLWLW |
| 1626 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1532 |
| 1.37 / 0.50 | Attack / defence index | 0.61 / 1.15 |
Table: current Europa League standings. *Europa League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Leverkusen 1 win · 0 draws · Marseille 0 wins
- Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 Marseille