The Coefficient7615OVRHome
FC Twente
- ATT
- 7515
- DEF
- 7816
- FRM
- 7615
- ELO
- 7515
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FC Twente vs Pafos: UEFA Conference League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Conference LeagueHomeFC Twente7615OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayPafos5912OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · De Grolsch Veste, Enschede, Netherlands
Team comparison
Ratings
- 7515Attack5912
- 7816Defence5912
- 7615Form5812
- 7515Elo strength5912
- 7615Overall5912
5912OVRAway
Pafos
- ATT
- 5912
- DEF
- 5912
- FRM
- 5812
- ELO
- 5912
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
FC Twente (5th, 6 pts from 2) host Pafos (27th, 1 pts from 2) in the Conference League table as it stands. FC Twente have scored 5 and conceded 1 in 2 Conference League games (2.5 and 0.5 per game). Pafos have scored 2 and conceded 4 in 2 Conference League games (1.0 and 2.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): FC Twente DWLWW, Pafos DDWLD. The goals model expects about 2.4–0.9. FC Twente are clear favorites: FC Twente 71%, draw 17%, Pafos 12%. The single most likely score is 2–0, but even that only has a 11% chance. Elo ratings (FC Twente 1638, Pafos 1490) give FC Twente an expected score of 77%, which agrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 2 Conference League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): FC Twente 2.37 · Pafos 0.85 · most likely score 2–0 (11%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.64 / away 1.33 goals per game from 36 Conference League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: FC Twente expected score 77%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| FC Twente | Pafos | |
|---|---|---|
| 5th | Table position | 27th |
| 6 (2) | Points (played) | 1 (2) |
| 2-0-0 | W-D-L | 0-1-1 |
| 2.50 | Goals for / game* | 1.00 |
| 0.50 | Goals against / game* | 2.00 |
| DWLWW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | DDWLD |
| 1638 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1490 |
| 1.27 / 0.73 | Attack / defence index | 0.87 / 1.14 |
Table: current Conference League standings. *Conference League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.