The Coefficient7215OVRHome
FC Lugano
- ATT
- 8718
- DEF
- 5912
- FRM
- 7615
- ELO
- 6313
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FC Lugano vs Kauno Zalgiris: UEFA Conference League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Conference LeagueHomeFC Lugano7215OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayKauno Zalgiris479OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · AIL Arena, Lugano, Switzerland
Team comparison
Ratings
- 8718Attack5211
- 5912Defence439
- 7615Form449
- 6313Elo strength––
- 7215Overall479
479OVRAway
Kauno Zalgiris
- ATT
- 5211
- DEF
- 439
- FRM
- 449
- ELO
- ––
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
FC Lugano (2nd, 6 pts from 2) host Kauno Zalgiris (36th, 0 pts from 2) in the Conference League table as it stands. FC Lugano have scored 8 and conceded 4 in 2 Conference League games (4.0 and 2.0 per game). Kauno Zalgiris have scored 1 and conceded 8 in 2 Conference League games (0.5 and 4.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): FC Lugano WDLWW, Kauno Zalgiris LLWLL. The goals model expects about 4.6–1.1. FC Lugano are clear favorites: FC Lugano 90%, draw 6%, Kauno Zalgiris 4%. The single most likely score is 4–1, but even that only has a 7% chance. Small sample warning: one side has only 2 Conference League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): FC Lugano 4.61 · Kauno Zalgiris 1.11 · most likely score 4–1 (7%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.64 / away 1.33 goals per game from 36 Conference League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: FC Lugano expected score 67%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| FC Lugano | Kauno Zalgiris | |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Table position | 36th |
| 6 (2) | Points (played) | 0 (2) |
| 2-0-0 | W-D-L | 0-0-2 |
| 4.00 | Goals for / game* | 0.50 |
| 2.00 | Goals against / game* | 4.00 |
| WDLWW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LLWLL |
| 1529 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1470 |
| 1.68 / 1.14 | Attack / defence index | 0.73 / 1.68 |
Table: current Conference League standings. *Conference League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.