The Coefficient6213OVRHome
Celta Vigo
- ATT
- 5712
- DEF
- 6814
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- 6112
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Celta Vigo vs Union St.-Gilloise: UEFA Europa League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Europa LeagueHomeCelta Vigo6213OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayUnion St.-Gilloise7916OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Balaidos, Vigo, Spain
Team comparison
Ratings
- 5712Attack7916
- 6814Defence8718
- 6213Form8116
- 6112Elo strength6313
- 6213Overall7916
7916OVRAway
Union St.-Gilloise
- ATT
- 7916
- DEF
- 8718
- FRM
- 8116
- ELO
- 6313
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Celta Vigo (25th, 3 pts from 3) host Union SG (6th, 7 pts from 3) in the Europa League table as it stands. Celta Vigo have scored 3 and conceded 4 in 3 Europa League games (1.0 and 1.3 per game). Union SG have scored 8 and conceded 1 in 3 Europa League games (2.7 and 0.3 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Celta Vigo LWWDL, Union SG DDWWW. The goals model expects about 0.8–2.0. Union SG are clear favorites: Celta Vigo 13%, draw 20%, Union SG 67%. The single most likely score is 0–2, but even that only has a 13% chance. Elo ratings (Celta Vigo 1510, Union SG 1530) give Celta Vigo an expected score of 56%, which disagrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Europa League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Celta Vigo 0.75 · Union SG 2.01 · most likely score 0–2 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.50 / away 1.57 goals per game from 54 Europa League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Celta Vigo expected score 56%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Celta Vigo | Union SG | |
|---|---|---|
| 25th | Table position | 6th |
| 3 (3) | Points (played) | 7 (3) |
| 1-0-2 | W-D-L | 2-1-0 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game* | 2.67 |
| 1.33 | Goals against / game* | 0.33 |
| LWWDL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | DDWWW |
| 1510 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1530 |
| 0.83 / 0.93 | Attack / defence index | 1.37 / 0.61 |
Table: current Europa League standings. *Europa League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.