The Coefficient6513OVRHome
Crystal Palace
- ATT
- 7916
- DEF
- 6313
- FRM
- 4810
- ELO
- 6213
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Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim: UEFA Europa League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Europa LeagueHomeCrystal Palace6513OVR
Kick-off 11:45 AM CT
AwayTSG Hoffenheim6613OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 11:45 AM CT · Selhurst Park, London, England
Team comparison
Ratings
- 7916Attack6714
- 6313Defence6313
- 4810Form7114
- 6213Elo strength6313
- 6513Overall6613
6613OVRAway
TSG Hoffenheim
- ATT
- 6714
- DEF
- 6313
- FRM
- 7114
- ELO
- 6313
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
C Palace (15th, 4 pts from 3) host Hoffenheim (23rd, 3 pts from 3) in the Europa League table as it stands. C Palace have scored 8 and conceded 5 in 3 Europa League games (2.7 and 1.7 per game). Hoffenheim have scored 5 and conceded 5 in 3 Europa League games (1.7 and 1.7 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): C Palace LDLWL, Hoffenheim WWWLL. The goals model expects about 2.1–1.7. C Palace are slight favorites: C Palace 48%, draw 21%, Hoffenheim 31%. The single most likely score is 2–1, but even that only has a 8% chance. Elo ratings (C Palace 1516, Hoffenheim 1530) give C Palace an expected score of 57%, which agrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Europa League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): C Palace 2.14 · Hoffenheim 1.71 · most likely score 2–1 (8%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.50 / away 1.57 goals per game from 54 Europa League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: C Palace expected score 57%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| C Palace | Hoffenheim | |
|---|---|---|
| 15th | Table position | 23rd |
| 4 (3) | Points (played) | 3 (3) |
| 1-1-1 | W-D-L | 1-0-2 |
| 2.67 | Goals for / game* | 1.67 |
| 1.67 | Goals against / game* | 1.67 |
| LDLWL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWWLL |
| 1516 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1530 |
| 1.37 / 1.04 | Attack / defence index | 1.04 / 1.04 |
Table: current Europa League standings. *Europa League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.