The Coefficient8417OVRHome
Benfica
- ATT
- 8517
- DEF
- 7916
- FRM
- 8517
- ELO
- 8918
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Benfica vs Lech Poznan: UEFA Europa League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Europa LeagueHomeBenfica8417OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayLech Poznan4810OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Estádio da Luz, Lisbon, Portugal
Team comparison
Ratings
- 8517Attack439
- 7916Defence4810
- 8517Form449
- 8918Elo strength6012
- 8417Overall4810
4810OVRAway
Lech Poznan
- ATT
- 439
- DEF
- 4810
- FRM
- 449
- ELO
- 6012
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Benfica (1st, 9 pts from 3) host Lech Poznan (32nd, 1 pts from 3) in the Europa League table as it stands. Benfica have scored 10 and conceded 2 in 3 Europa League games (3.3 and 0.7 per game). Lech Poznan have scored 1 and conceded 9 in 3 Europa League games (0.3 and 3.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Benfica LWWWW, Lech Poznan DLDLD. In the last 2 meetings on record, Benfica won 2, Lech Poznan won 0 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 3.5–0.7. Benfica are clear favorites: Benfica 88%, draw 8%, Lech Poznan 4%. The single most likely score is 3–0, but even that only has a 11% chance. Elo ratings (Benfica 1758, Lech Poznan 1504) give Benfica an expected score of 86%, which agrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Europa League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Benfica 3.51 · Lech Poznan 0.69 · most likely score 3–0 (11%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.50 / away 1.57 goals per game from 54 Europa League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Benfica expected score 86%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Benfica | Lech Poznan | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Table position | 32nd |
| 9 (3) | Points (played) | 1 (3) |
| 3-0-0 | W-D-L | 0-1-2 |
| 3.33 | Goals for / game* | 0.33 |
| 0.67 | Goals against / game* | 3.00 |
| LWWWW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | DLDLD |
| 1758 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1504 |
| 1.58 / 0.72 | Attack / defence index | 0.61 / 1.48 |
Table: current Europa League standings. *Europa League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Benfica 2 wins · 0 draws · Lech Poznan 0 wins
- Benfica 4–0 Lech Poznan
- Lech Poznan 2–4 Benfica