The Coefficient7114OVRHome
AZ Alkmaar
- ATT
- 7114
- DEF
- 7916
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- 6914
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AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus: UEFA Europa League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Europa LeagueHomeAZ Alkmaar7114OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayJuventus7415OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar, Netherlands
Team comparison
Ratings
- 7114Attack8217
- 7916Defence7315
- 6213Form6213
- 6914Elo strength7315
- 7114Overall7415
7415OVRAway
Juventus
- ATT
- 8217
- DEF
- 7315
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- 7315
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
AZ Alkmaar (10th, 6 pts from 3) host Juventus (7th, 7 pts from 3) in the Europa League table as it stands. AZ Alkmaar have scored 6 and conceded 2 in 3 Europa League games (2.0 and 0.7 per game). Juventus have scored 9 and conceded 3 in 3 Europa League games (3.0 and 1.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): AZ Alkmaar WDWLL, Juventus WLDWL. The goals model expects about 1.4–1.7. Juventus are slight favorites: AZ Alkmaar 33%, draw 24%, Juventus 43%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 11% chance. Elo ratings (AZ Alkmaar 1583, Juventus 1618) give AZ Alkmaar an expected score of 54%, which disagrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Europa League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): AZ Alkmaar 1.42 · Juventus 1.67 · most likely score 1–1 (11%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.50 / away 1.57 goals per game from 54 Europa League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: AZ Alkmaar expected score 54%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| AZ Alkmaar | Juventus | |
|---|---|---|
| 10th | Table position | 7th |
| 6 (3) | Points (played) | 7 (3) |
| 2-0-1 | W-D-L | 2-1-0 |
| 2.00 | Goals for / game* | 3.00 |
| 0.67 | Goals against / game* | 1.00 |
| WDWLL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WLDWL |
| 1583 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1618 |
| 1.15 / 0.72 | Attack / defence index | 1.48 / 0.83 |
Table: current Europa League standings. *Europa League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.