The Coefficient6313OVRHome
Atalanta
- ATT
- 6513
- DEF
- 6513
- FRM
- 5311
- ELO
- 6613
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Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty: UEFA Conference League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Conference LeagueHomeAtalanta6313OVR
Kick-off 11:45 AM CT
AwayKairat Almaty5010OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 11:45 AM CT · New Balance Arena, Bergamo, Italy
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6513Attack5912
- 6513Defence5010
- 5311Form357
- 6613Elo strength5110
- 6313Overall5010
5010OVRAway
Kairat Almaty
- ATT
- 5912
- DEF
- 5010
- FRM
- 357
- ELO
- 5110
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Atalanta (15th, 3 pts from 2) host Kairat Almaty (31st, 1 pts from 2) in the Conference League table as it stands. Atalanta have scored 3 and conceded 3 in 2 Conference League games (1.5 and 1.5 per game). Kairat Almaty have scored 2 and conceded 6 in 2 Conference League games (1.0 and 3.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Atalanta WLLDD, Kairat Almaty LLLDL. The goals model expects about 2.3–1.2. Atalanta are clear favorites: Atalanta 63%, draw 19%, Kairat Almaty 18%. The single most likely score is 2–1, but even that only has a 10% chance. Elo ratings (Atalanta 1555, Kairat Almaty 1418) give Atalanta an expected score of 76%, which agrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 2 Conference League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Atalanta 2.32 · Kairat Almaty 1.16 · most likely score 2–1 (10%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.64 / away 1.33 goals per game from 36 Conference League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Atalanta expected score 76%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Atalanta | Kairat Almaty | |
|---|---|---|
| 15th | Table position | 31st |
| 3 (2) | Points (played) | 1 (2) |
| 1-0-1 | W-D-L | 0-1-1 |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game* | 1.00 |
| 1.50 | Goals against / game* | 3.00 |
| WLLDD | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LLLDL |
| 1555 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1418 |
| 1.00 / 1.00 | Attack / defence index | 0.87 / 1.41 |
Table: current Conference League standings. *Conference League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.