The Coefficient6313OVRHome
AGF
- ATT
- 5211
- DEF
- 7114
- FRM
- 6714
- ELO
- ––
← Match Center
AGF vs Braga: UEFA Conference League, Nov 5, 2026
UEFA Conference LeagueHomeAGF6313OVR
Kick-off 11:45 AM CT
AwayBraga5912OVR
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 11:45 AM CT · Cepheus Park Randers, Randers, Denmark
Team comparison
Ratings
- 5211Attack5912
- 7114Defence6513
- 6714Form449
- ––Elo strength6714
- 6313Overall5912
5912OVRAway
Braga
- ATT
- 5912
- DEF
- 6513
- FRM
- 449
- ELO
- 6714
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
AGF (26th, 1 pts from 2) host Braga (16th, 3 pts from 2) in the Conference League table as it stands. AGF have scored 1 and conceded 2 in 2 Conference League games (0.5 and 1.0 per game). Braga have scored 2 and conceded 3 in 2 Conference League games (1.0 and 1.5 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): AGF WLDDW, Braga LLLWL. The goals model expects about 1.2–1.0. AGF are slight favorites: AGF 41%, draw 29%, Braga 31%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 13% chance. Small sample warning: one side has only 2 Conference League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): AGF 1.21 · Braga 1.01 · most likely score 1–1 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.64 / away 1.33 goals per game from 36 Conference League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: AGF expected score 48%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| AGF | Braga | |
|---|---|---|
| 26th | Table position | 16th |
| 1 (2) | Points (played) | 3 (2) |
| 0-1-1 | W-D-L | 1-0-1 |
| 0.50 | Goals for / game* | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game* | 1.50 |
| WLDDW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LLLWL |
| 1490 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1566 |
| 0.73 / 0.87 | Attack / defence index | 0.87 / 1.00 |
Table: current Conference League standings. *Conference League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.