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RB Leipzig vs Manchester City: UEFA Champions League, Nov 4, 2026

UEFA Champions League
HomeRB Leipzig6213OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayManchester City7415OVR

Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, Germany

Team comparison

Ratings

6213OVRHome

RB Leipzig

ATT
5211
DEF
5912
FRM
7114
ELO
7114
  • 5211Attack7415
  • 5912Defence6914
  • 7114Form7114
  • 7114Elo strength8617
  • 6213Overall7415
ATTDEFFRMELO
RB Leipzig Man City
7415OVRAway

Manchester City

ATT
7415
DEF
6914
FRM
7114
ELO
8617

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

RB Leipzig (30th, 3 pts from 3) host Man City (10th, 6 pts from 3) in the Champions League table as it stands. RB Leipzig have scored 3 and conceded 8 in 3 Champions League games (1.0 and 2.7 per game). Man City have scored 9 and conceded 5 in 3 Champions League games (3.0 and 1.7 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): RB Leipzig LLWWW, Man City WWLWL. In the last 5 meetings on record, RB Leipzig won 1, Man City won 3 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.7–2.3. Man City are clear favorites: RB Leipzig 29%, draw 20%, Man City 51%. The single most likely score is 1–2, but even that only has a 8% chance. Elo ratings (RB Leipzig 1603, Man City 1733) give RB Leipzig an expected score of 40%, which agrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Champions League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.

Data outlook

RB Leipzig winDrawMan City win

Expected goals (model): RB Leipzig 1.69 · Man City 2.26 · most likely score 1–2 (8%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.50 / away 1.59 goals per game from 54 Champions League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: RB Leipzig expected score 40%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

RB LeipzigMan City
30thTable position10th
3 (3)Points (played)6 (3)
1-0-2W-D-L2-0-1
1.00Goals for / game*3.00
2.67Goals against / game*1.67
LLWWWForm, last 5 (all comps)WWLWL
1603Elo rating (pre-match)1733
0.74 / 1.15Attack / defence index1.23 / 0.91

Table: current Champions League standings. *Champions League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

RB Leipzig 1 win · 1 draw · Man City 3 wins

  • Manchester City 3–2 RB Leipzig
  • RB Leipzig 1–3 Manchester City
  • Manchester City 7–0 RB Leipzig
  • RB Leipzig 1–1 Manchester City
  • RB Leipzig 2–1 Manchester City