The Coefficient5712OVRHome
Fenerbahce
- ATT
- 5211
- DEF
- 5611
- FRM
- 4810
- ELO
- 7515
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Fenerbahce vs Liverpool: UEFA Champions League, Nov 4, 2026
UEFA Champions LeagueHomeFenerbahce5712OVR
Kick-off 11:45 AM CT
AwayLiverpool7916OVR
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 11:45 AM CT · Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium, Istanbul, Türkiye
Team comparison
Ratings
- 5211Attack8217
- 5611Defence6213
- 4810Form9920
- 7515Elo strength7816
- 5712Overall7916
7916OVRAway
Liverpool
- ATT
- 8217
- DEF
- 6213
- FRM
- 9920
- ELO
- 7816
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Fenerbahce (31st, 2 pts from 3) host Liverpool (3rd, 9 pts from 3) in the Champions League table as it stands. Fenerbahce have scored 3 and conceded 9 in 3 Champions League games (1.0 and 3.0 per game). Liverpool have scored 12 and conceded 7 in 3 Champions League games (4.0 and 2.3 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Fenerbahce LWDLL, Liverpool WWWWW. The goals model expects about 2.0–2.9. Liverpool are clear favorites: Fenerbahce 26%, draw 17%, Liverpool 57%. The single most likely score is 1–2, but even that only has a 6% chance. Elo ratings (Fenerbahce 1639, Liverpool 1664) give Fenerbahce an expected score of 55%, which disagrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Champions League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Fenerbahce 1.99 · Liverpool 2.90 · most likely score 1–2 (6%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.50 / away 1.59 goals per game from 54 Champions League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Fenerbahce expected score 55%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Fenerbahce | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| 31st | Table position | 3rd |
| 2 (3) | Points (played) | 9 (3) |
| 0-2-1 | W-D-L | 3-0-0 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game* | 4.00 |
| 3.00 | Goals against / game* | 2.33 |
| LWDLL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWWWW |
| 1639 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1664 |
| 0.74 / 1.23 | Attack / defence index | 1.48 / 1.07 |
Table: current Champions League standings. *Champions League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.