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FC Porto vs Napoli: UEFA Champions League, Nov 4, 2026

UEFA Champions League
HomeFC Porto6513OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayNapoli6413OVR

Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Estádio do Dragão, Porto, Portugal

Team comparison

Ratings

6513OVRHome

FC Porto

ATT
479
DEF
6513
FRM
7114
ELO
8517
  • 479Attack6112
  • 6513Defence6213
  • 7114Form6213
  • 8517Elo strength7215
  • 6513Overall6413
ATTDEFFRMELO
FC Porto Napoli
6413OVRAway

Napoli

ATT
6112
DEF
6213
FRM
6213
ELO
7215

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

FC Porto (34th, 0 pts from 3) host Napoli (22nd, 3 pts from 3) in the Champions League table as it stands. FC Porto have scored 2 and conceded 6 in 3 Champions League games (0.7 and 2.0 per game). Napoli have scored 5 and conceded 7 in 3 Champions League games (1.7 and 2.3 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): FC Porto WLLWW, Napoli LLWDW. In the last 2 meetings on record, FC Porto won 1, Napoli won 0 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.8–1.4. FC Porto are slight favorites: FC Porto 46%, draw 23%, Napoli 31%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 10% chance. Elo ratings (FC Porto 1724, Napoli 1610) give FC Porto an expected score of 73%, which agrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Champions League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.

Data outlook

FC Porto winDrawNapoli win

Expected goals (model): FC Porto 1.77 · Napoli 1.43 · most likely score 1–1 (10%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.50 / away 1.59 goals per game from 54 Champions League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: FC Porto expected score 73%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

FC PortoNapoli
34thTable position22nd
0 (3)Points (played)3 (3)
0-0-3W-D-L1-0-2
0.67Goals for / game*1.67
2.00Goals against / game*2.33
WLLWWForm, last 5 (all comps)LLWDW
1724Elo rating (pre-match)1610
0.66 / 0.99Attack / defence index0.91 / 1.07

Table: current Champions League standings. *Champions League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

FC Porto 1 win · 1 draw · Napoli 0 wins

  • Napoli 2–2 FC Porto
  • FC Porto 1–0 Napoli