The Coefficient7315OVRHome
Borussia Dortmund
- ATT
- 6112
- DEF
- 7315
- FRM
- 8116
- ELO
- 8116
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Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis: UEFA Champions League, Nov 4, 2026
UEFA Champions LeagueHomeBorussia Dortmund7315OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayReal Betis7215OVR
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Signal Iduna Park, Aue, Germany
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6112Attack6814
- 7315Defence7315
- 8116Form7615
- 8116Elo strength7515
- 7315Overall7215
7215OVRAway
Real Betis
- ATT
- 6814
- DEF
- 7315
- FRM
- 7615
- ELO
- 7515
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Dortmund (13th, 6 pts from 3) host Betis (5th, 9 pts from 3) in the Champions League table as it stands. Dortmund have scored 5 and conceded 4 in 3 Champions League games (1.7 and 1.3 per game). Betis have scored 7 and conceded 4 in 3 Champions League games (2.3 and 1.3 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Dortmund DWWWD, Betis WLWDW. The goals model expects about 1.9–1.4. Dortmund are slight favorites: Dortmund 49%, draw 22%, Betis 29%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 10% chance. Elo ratings (Dortmund 1691, Betis 1638) give Dortmund an expected score of 66%, which agrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Champions League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Dortmund 1.87 · Betis 1.41 · most likely score 1–1 (10%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.50 / away 1.59 goals per game from 54 Champions League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Dortmund expected score 66%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Dortmund | Betis | |
|---|---|---|
| 13th | Table position | 5th |
| 6 (3) | Points (played) | 9 (3) |
| 2-0-1 | W-D-L | 3-0-0 |
| 1.67 | Goals for / game* | 2.33 |
| 1.33 | Goals against / game* | 1.33 |
| DWWWD | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WLWDW |
| 1691 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1638 |
| 0.91 / 0.83 | Attack / defence index | 1.07 / 0.83 |
Table: current Champions League standings. *Champions League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.